短线窄幅波动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of precious metals shows narrow - range fluctuations, while the long - term bull market remains unchanged. The Fed's possible December interest rate cut and the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are expected to be positive for precious metal prices [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Precious Metal Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver showed narrow - range fluctuations. The international gold price was around $4000 per ounce, and the silver price was around $50 per ounce [3]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - On November 20, after the release of the US September non - farm report, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December dropped to less than 40%, leading to a stock market crash and a decline in precious metal prices. However, considering the rising unemployment rate, the dovish stance of the voting committee, and the possible impact of a continuous stock market crash, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen from less than 40% to over 70%. The Fed's possible interest rate cut in December is positive for precious metal prices [3][5]. Russia - Ukraine Conflict - The US has drafted a "28 - point plan" to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which includes multiple aspects such as cease - fire agreements, post - war reconstruction, and asset investment. Although it is not certain whether this plan will be accepted, it seems that the situation is moving towards peace, and precious metal prices are expected to benefit [6][7].