焦煤焦炭周报：煤矿缓慢复产，双焦期价大幅下跌-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke futures dropped significantly. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1103 on Friday, with a weekly decline of 7.47%, and the coke 2601 contract closed at 1614.5, with a weekly decline of 3.29% [3]. - For coking coal, supply increased slightly and demand remained stable last week. The coking coal 2601 contract fell below the 1120 support level, and short - term attention should be paid to the support around 1075 [4]. - For coke, both supply and demand decreased last week. The coke 2601 contract dropped significantly, and short - term attention should be paid to the support around 1610 [7]. - The coking coal - to - coke ratio rose rapidly last week, with an average of 1.44, and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period of the past 5 years. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55 [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1103 on Friday last week, with a weekly decline of 7.47%, and the spot market prices in mainstream areas were weak. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1614.5 on Friday, with a weekly decline of 3.29%, and the fourth round of price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton in the spot market in mainstream areas was implemented [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Coking Coal - Supply: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 86.9%, a 0.6% increase from the previous week; the daily average output of clean coal was 75.8 tons, a 0.1 - ton increase. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 37.6%, a 0.2% increase; the daily average output of clean coal was 27.6 tons, a 0.2 - ton increase. Some coal mines resumed production, and the inventory of coking coal mines and independent coal washing plants began to accumulate [3]. - Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained relatively high, and there was still rigid demand for coking coal. After the fourth round of price increase of coke, the loss of coking enterprises narrowed, but the expectation of steel mill production reduction increased, and the coking enterprises also had the expectation of production reduction. After the previous replenishment, the willingness of coking and steel enterprises to replenish inventory decreased, and they mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards coking coal procurement. The coking coal online auction prices mainly decreased, and the auction failure rate increased [4]. Coke - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of the national full - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, a 0.07% increase from the previous week; the daily average output was 62.67 tons, a 0.33 - ton decrease. The profit per ton of 30 sample coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton, a 53 - yuan increase. The coking enterprises' profitability improved, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory in the coking enterprises increased but was still at a low level. The port inventory decreased [6]. - Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a 0.62% decrease from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 236.28 tons, a 0.6 - ton decrease. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a 1.3% decrease. The steel price rose slightly, but the profitability continued to decline. The steel demand market was in the off - season, and the sales of finished products were still restricted. Most steel mills maintained the previous production state. Some steel mills' coke inventory was in a reasonable state, and the procurement demand weakened, but the blast furnace operating rate was still relatively stable, and the rigid demand for coke was still high [6]. 3. Inventory | Commodity | Location | Inventory (tons) | Weekly Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | Port | 291,500 | - 7,000 | | | Full - sample independent coking plants | 1,038,190 | - 30,780 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 797,080 | 6,910 | | | Total | 2,126,770 | - 30,870 | | Coke | Port | 193,000 | - 5,800 | | | Full - sample independent coking plants | 65,290 | 7,140 | | | 247 sample steel mills | 622,340 | - 60 | | | Total | 880,630 | 1,280 | [9]