瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY.OO) 瑞幸咖啡2025Q3业绩点评：聚焦份额增长，短期利润率承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on growth and market share, steadily expanding its store count to lay a solid foundation for long-term development [2][9]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and gross merchandise volume (GMV) for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 15.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [9]. - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profit margins due to a significant increase in delivery costs, which has impacted operating profit margins [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 24,903 million RMB - 2024: 34,475 million RMB (growth of 38.44%) - 2025E: 50,340 million RMB (growth of 46.02%) - 2026E: 59,811 million RMB (growth of 18.82%) - 2027E: 66,341 million RMB (growth of 10.92%) [4] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,848 million RMB - 2024: 2,932 million RMB (growth of 2.94%) - 2025E: 3,853 million RMB (growth of 31.44%) - 2026E: 4,713 million RMB (growth of 22.30%) - 2027E: 5,320 million RMB (growth of 12.90%) [4] - The company’s operating profit margin (OPM) for Q3 2025 was reported at 17.5%, a decrease of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Store Expansion and Sales Performance - As of Q3 2025, the company operates 29,214 stores, an increase of 36.88% year-on-year, with a net addition of 3,008 stores in Q3 [9]. - Same-store sales for self-operated stores increased by 14.4% in Q3 2025, driven by a surge in demand from delivery services [9]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The company is facing challenges with rising delivery costs, which have negatively impacted profit margins. The delivery cost ratio increased to 18.90%, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [9]. - The company plans to optimize its cost structure through refined operations and digital capabilities to maintain healthy profit margins despite rising costs [9].