原油、燃料油日报：原油承压于供应宽松预期弱需求主导油价走势-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is under pressure due to the expectation of loose supply, and weak demand dominates the oil price trend. In the short - term, the oil price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, geopolitical risk premiums should be focused on. Currently, the market logic is still dominated by weak demand, but if OPEC+ signals production cuts before the December meeting, the oil price may rebound [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes: On November 21, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.46% to 446 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent fell 1.5% and 1.5% respectively to $58.76/barrel and $63.08/barrel. The SC - Brent spread widened from $0.6/barrel to $0.92/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened from $4.97/barrel to $5.24/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened slightly to $4.32/barrel [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: As of November 18, the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil increased by 13,497 lots to 178,364 lots, while the net short position of WTI increased by 33,023 lots to 42,487 lots [1]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain: - Supply Side: The number of U.S. oil rigs increased by 2 to 419 this week. The U.S. Interior Department plans to expand drilling in the West Coast and Arctic regions. Venezuela's crude oil upgrading unit stopped operating due to a fire, and Rosneft cut dividends, which increased non - OPEC supply disruptions. India's Reliance Industries stopped processing Russian oil, but Kuwait's export of heavy crude oil to India showed the flexibility of Middle East supply [2]. - Demand Side: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2 (expected 50.2), and the weak service industry dragged the composite PMI to remain at 52.5. The U.S. refinery capacity assessment bill was passed, which may support long - term demand [2]. - Inventory Side: In the week of November 14, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.603 million barrels, previous value increased by 6.413 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.698 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.346 million barrels); EIA gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.945 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventories increased by 0.171 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.637 million barrels) [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: On November 21, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined. The SC - Brent spread increased by 27.16% to $1.03/barrel, the SC - WTI spread decreased by 5.73% to $4.94/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 11.74% to $3.91/barrel. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.80%, and the U.S. refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.67% [5]. - Fuel Oil: On November 21, 2025, FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil futures prices all declined. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 7.40% to 576 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 5.53% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: The U.S. oil rig count increased to 419 in the week ending November 21. India's Reliance Industries bought 1 million barrels of heavy crude oil from Kuwait. China's Western Crude Oil Pipeline has transported over 200 million tons of oil. The Trump administration plans to open new areas in the West Coast and Arctic for drilling. Venezuela's crude oil upgrading unit stopped operating due to a fire [7][8]. - Demand: As of the week ending November 18, diesel speculators increased their net long positions. The U.S. House of Representatives passed two energy bills. India's Reliance Industries will stop processing Russian oil [9]. - Inventory: The warehouse futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil remained unchanged compared with the previous trading day, and the futures warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil also remained unchanged [10]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spread statistics, U.S. crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]