从供需格局到战略展望：铂钯金属产业链全景图

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum market is expected to face a supply deficit in 2025, with a shortage of 692,000 ounces. Despite a possible balance or slight surplus in 2026 under certain conditions, the supply - side structural tension and long - term demand potential from the hydrogen industry remain. The price is likely to break through $2000 in the medium - term [62]. - The palladium market is facing a double - pressure of supply surplus and structural demand decline. The supply surplus is expected to expand to 245,000 ounces in 2025, and the price will face downward pressure in the future [61][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Overview - Physical and Chemical Properties: Platinum is a silver - white metal with high density, excellent high - temperature resistance, and good ductility. It is chemically stable and an excellent catalyst. Palladium is also a silver - white metal, lighter than platinum, with good high - temperature performance and unique hydrogen - absorption ability. It is also a highly efficient catalyst [8][9][10][11]. - Industrial Chain: The upstream of the platinum - palladium industrial chain is highly geographically concentrated, with South Africa and Russia dominating. The mid - stream involves refining and purification, and the downstream demand for platinum is diverse, while palladium is mainly used in the automotive sector. China has a low self - sufficiency rate and is taking measures to ensure supply chain security [12]. - Futures Contracts: China lacks platinum and palladium futures pricing power. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has released a draft for soliciting opinions on platinum and palladium futures contracts, with innovative delivery systems and specific contract parameters [14][15]. 3.2 Supply - Global Supply Pattern: In 2024, global platinum supply was 81% from mines and 19% from recycling, while palladium supply was 71.5% from mines and 28.5% from recycling. South Africa dominated platinum production, and Russia was the largest palladium producer. Four major mining giants dominated global platinum and palladium supply [18][20][25]. - China's Supply Pattern: China's platinum supply is highly dependent on imports, while palladium supply has stronger self - sufficiency due to a well - established recycling system. China's platinum and palladium imports are geographically concentrated, and the export scale is small. The domestic recycling industry has potential for growth [33][34][36]. 3.3 Demand - Global Demand Structure: Platinum demand is relatively diversified, with the automotive catalyst sector being the largest, followed by industrial applications. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive catalyst sector. Platinum demand is less volatile, while palladium demand is more affected by the automotive industry [39]. - China's Demand Structure: China's platinum demand focuses on green energy transformation, while palladium demand is also mainly in the automotive industry but faces more uncertainty due to the impact of new - energy vehicles [42]. - Application Areas: In the automotive industry, platinum, palladium, and rhodium play different roles in exhaust catalysts. In glass manufacturing, platinum - rhodium alloys and palladium alloys are used for their high - temperature stability and corrosion resistance. In the jewelry and investment fields, platinum investment demand is strong, and jewelry demand is recovering. In the hydrogen energy industry, platinum and palladium are core catalysts [47][50][51][56]. 3.4 Balance and Outlook - Global Balance: The platinum market is facing supply shortages, while the palladium market is facing supply surpluses and demand declines. The supply of platinum is affected by production challenges in South Africa and North America, while demand is supported by the automotive and hydrogen energy industries. The palladium supply surplus is due to reduced demand in the automotive sector and increased recycling [58][61]. - Price and Outlook: The platinum price is expected to rise in the medium - term, while the palladium price is under downward pressure. The future price trends of both metals are related to the automotive industry, recycling markets, and policy factors [62][65].