现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, which is rated as "oscillating" [3] Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is declining slightly, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. Factors such as supply, demand, inventory, profit, and valuation all have different impacts on the market, resulting in an overall situation of weak fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. There were regional differences in load changes [3] - Demand: Alumina production declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 90.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained flat [3] - Inventory: Although there was some destocking, the inventory of sample enterprises increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage ratio increased [3] - Profit: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 97%. The average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.90% [3] - Valuation: The spot price was neutral, the absolute futures price was low, and the near - month contract was at a discount [3] - Macro Policy: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the market traded based on fundamentals [3] - Investment View and Strategy: The short - term market is expected to oscillate. There are no suggestions for unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The futures market was range - bound. The Shandong spot market was weak, and the futures had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year, and the chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The subsequent supply pressure may increase, and the spot price is expected to decline oscillatingly [9] - Spot Market: The spot price was declining slightly [7] - Position: The total position increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - Electricity Price: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33] - Production: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [37] - Chlor - Alkali Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [38] - Downstream Price: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - Alumina: Alumina production recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the production rate in Henan increased significantly [53][54] - Non - Aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production started to decline [64][65] - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The production rate rebounded [72] - Subsequent Maintenance: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [77]