社服零售行业周报：百胜中国启动RGM3.0战略，确立未来三年财务目标-20251124

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - Yum China has launched the RGM3.0 strategy, establishing financial targets for the next three years, with an operating profit margin of 10.8%-10.9% for 2025, and restaurant profit margins of approximately 16.2%-16.3% for Yum China, 17.3% for KFC, and 12.7% for Pizza Hut [1][2] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate in same-store sales index of 100-102 from 2026 to 2028, with system sales growth in the high single digits and double-digit growth in diluted earnings per share and free cash flow per share [2][33] - By 2026, the total number of stores is expected to reach 20,000, increasing to over 25,000 by 2028, and striving to exceed 30,000 by 2030 [2][33] - Average annual capital expenditure is projected to be around $600-700 million, with plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027 [2][33] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The consumer services index and retail index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.76 percentage points and 2.58 percentage points, respectively [13] - In October, the total retail sales amounted to 4.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [39] - The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with significant growth in jewelry and cosmetics categories [39][56] Investment Recommendations - Five investment themes are suggested: 1) Continuous upgrades in AI technology with beneficiaries including Core International and Focus Technology [4] 2) Enhanced consumer willingness to pay for emotional value, benefiting high-growth new retail sectors like Miniso and Pop Mart [4] 3) Recovery of cyclical sectors under the backdrop of domestic demand stimulation, with beneficiaries including Haidilao and Yum China [4] 4) Broad prospects for overseas consumption, with support for domestic brands going abroad [4] 5) Return of offline traffic, revitalizing traditional formats with beneficiaries like Yonghui Supermarket and百联股份 [4]