有色金属基础周报：宏观影响减弱，有色金属整体延续调整-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. Instead, it gives specific investment suggestions for different metals: - Copper: Suggests waiting and seeing or trading in a light - position range [3] - Aluminum: Recommends waiting and seeing [3] - Zinc: Advises range trading [3] - Lead: Recommends range trading and being cautious and bearish [3] - Nickel: Suggests cautious short - holding or waiting and seeing [4] - Stainless steel: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Tin: Advises cautious range trading [4] - Industrial silicon: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Polysilicon: Suggests low - buying and high - selling [4] - Lithium carbonate: Recommends exiting and waiting and seeing [4] 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment has a significant impact on metal prices. For example, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy and geopolitical conflicts affect market sentiment. At the same time, the fundamentals of supply and demand also play a crucial role in determining metal prices. Some metals are facing supply - side challenges such as production cuts or disruptions, while others are affected by changes in downstream demand. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Copper - Price trend: The Shanghai copper main contract continues to show a high - level volatile pattern. In the short term, it will remain at 85,000 - 88,000. The long - term demand outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations [3]. - Fundamentals: Market consumption has improved recently, and social inventories have declined. The focus has shifted to the long - term contract negotiation of mines. Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of 2026, which is expected to ease the anxiety about mine - end supply [3]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - Price trend: The price has fallen from a high level. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at the current position. - Fundamentals: The price of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan is stable, while the price of imported bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged. Some enterprises have carried out production reduction and technological transformation. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased slightly [3]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Price trend: The zinc price has fluctuated weakly in the range of 22,000 - 22,800 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc mines have continued to decline, and there are expectations of production cuts. Terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory is still at a high level [3]. 3.1.4 Lead - Price trend: The Shanghai lead main contract shows a bearish trend and is expected to fluctuate weakly after a rapid decline. The reference range is 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The supply of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the prices of lead concentrate, lead ingots, and waste batteries have all declined. With the completion of the first large - capacity all - solid - state battery production line in China, the market is affected [3]. 3.1.5 Nickel - Price trend: The price has declined widely and is expected to continue to decline. - Fundamentals: The global refined nickel has continued to accumulate inventory. The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has declined, and the pattern of nickel iron surplus continues. The downstream stainless steel is in the off - season, with weak demand and continuous increase in inventory. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly declined, and the demand is weak [4]. 3.1.6 Tin - Price trend: The price shows a high - level volatile pattern and is expected to rise overall. The reference range is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The domestic refined tin production has increased year - on - year, and the import of tin concentrate has increased month - on - month. The export of refined tin in Indonesia has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve [4]. 3.1.7 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - Price trend: Industrial silicon is at high risk and is recommended to wait and see; polysilicon is recommended for low - buying and high - selling. - Fundamentals: The production of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased. The production of organic silicon has increased, and enterprises have reached a price - holding consensus and formulated production - cut measures. The production of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to decline slightly [4]. 3.1.8 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: The price has risen and then fallen, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. - Fundamentals: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance. The production in October has increased month - on - month, and the import has also changed. The downstream demand is strong, especially in the energy storage field. However, there are still uncertainties in the mining rights of Yichun mines [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - The report provides a series of macro - economic data, including the US economic data (such as the New York Fed manufacturing index, durable goods orders, unemployment rate, etc.), euro - zone inflation data, and China's loan market quotation rate (LPR). These data reflect the current economic situation of different regions and have an impact on the metal market [12][15][16].