乙二醇港口累库压力凸显关注煤制装置减产可能

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol is likely to continue its low-level oscillatory pattern in the short term The core contradiction lies in the game between high inventory pressure and cost support The significant accumulation of port inventory suppresses market sentiment, while the substantial contraction of coal-based profits may force device production cuts, and cost-side disturbances caused by crude oil price fluctuations limit the downside space The demand side lacks incremental drivers, and the contradiction between high polyester operation and weak weaving reality persists It is expected that the price will oscillate in the range of 3,800 - 3,900 yuan/ton Attention should be paid to the maintenance dynamics of coal chemical devices and the port unloading rhythm [2][3] Summary by Directory Daily Market Summary - 主力合约与基差: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract remained stable at 3,822 yuan/ton for two consecutive days, but the recent trend showed a continuous decline from 3,938 yuan/ton to the current level, with the market showing weak oscillations The spot price in East China also remained flat at 3,855 yuan/ton, and the basis between futures and spot maintained a narrow fluctuation of 33 yuan/ton, reflecting cautious trading sentiment in the spot market [2] - 持仓与成交: The trading volume of the main contract soared to 261,700 lots, a 45.9% increase from the previous day, while the open interest increased by 25,557 lots to 355,406 lots, reaching a recent high This indicates active capital entry but intensified divergence between bulls and bears [2] - 供给端: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at a low level of 67.63%, with the coal-based operating rate stable at 54.29% for two consecutive weeks and the oil-based operating rate flat at 76.23% Although the profit of the ethylene-based process continued to shrink, oil-based devices maintained high-load operation, and the coal-based profit was halved within the week to 112 yuan/ton, which may suppress subsequent operating flexibility [2] - 需求端: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained flat at 63.43%, with no seasonal improvement signals in terminal demand Downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking, lacking speculative demand support [2] - 库存端: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 10.7% to 732,000 tons within a week, among which the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 27.9% to 275,000 tons, reaching the largest increase this year The port inventory pressure increased significantly, and the high arrival volume put pressure on spot liquidity [3] Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - 期货与现货价格: On November 21, the main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 3,808 yuan/ton, a 0.37% decrease The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 97,415 lots to 164,315 lots, a 37.22% decrease The open interest decreased by 2,106 lots to 353,300 lots, a 0.59% decrease The spot price in the East China market decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,845 yuan/ton, a 0.26% decrease [5] - 利润情况: The profits of various ethylene-based processes generally decreased, with the coal-based profit dropping from 242 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, a 53.54% decrease The profits of natural gas-based and oilfield associated gas-based processes also decreased slightly [5] - 产业链开工负荷: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 67.6%, the coal-based and oil-based operating rates remained unchanged, and the loads of polyester factories and looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang also remained stable [5] - 库存与到港量情况: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 71,000 tons to 732,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 60,000 tons to 275,000 tons, with a significant increase in inventory pressure [5] Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - 美金市场: On November 21, the morning negotiation in the East China US dollar market declined, with near-month cargoes negotiated at 450 - 453 US dollars/ton and far-month cargoes at 456 - 458 US dollars/ton In the afternoon, the market remained at a low level, with December cargoes negotiated at 450 - 453 US dollars/ton [6] - 原油市场: On November 21, the crude oil market continued to weaken, with negative support from the cost side The expectation of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation suppressed market sentiment, and it was difficult to gather bullish confidence in the market The current negotiation price in East China was around 3,848 yuan/ton [6] - 陕西 market: On November 21, the spot quotation in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable, with an average market price of around 3,690 yuan/ton for self-pickup Although the mainstream market had been falling for many days, the supply of coal-based products was relatively tight, and downstream buyers purchased for rigid demand, so the quotation of Shaanxi products remained stable [6] - 华南 market: On November 21, the center of the mainstream market moved down, but the spot in the South China market was tight, and the quotes of holders in the South China market remained stable, currently around 4,080 - 4,100 yuan/ton for delivery [6] Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol device operating rate, downstream polyester device operating rate, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics [7][9][11][14][16]