甲醇周报（MA）：进口卸货减少以及货物回流，港口库存出现下跌-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the methanol market is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market's supply and demand were basically balanced, with a slight increase in port arrivals but limited inventory fluctuations. Downstream demand recovered, and the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increased, driving up consumption. Coal prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and a slight increase in logistics freight rates supported the market. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Market participants are advised to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to seize market opportunities. The overall market shows a positive interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and investors can moderately focus on structural opportunities [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, methanol supply showed a steady and slightly increasing trend. Port arrivals increased slightly, and imports in South China significantly increased, leading to continuous inventory reduction in major consumption areas such as Guangdong and Fujian. In terms of logistics, freight rates in major methanol regions increased slightly, with the freight rates from Ordos to Dongying and from Shaanxi to Dongying increasing by about 9% and 5% respectively week - on - week, providing some cost support for supply. On the demand side, the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as methanol - to - olefins and dimethyl ether increased slightly, enhancing the overall digestion capacity of methanol. The market presented a positive interaction between supply and demand. Although supply increased slightly, supported by the recovery of downstream demand, supply and demand remained relatively balanced, and inventory fluctuations were limited. Overall, the methanol market supply was moderately loose, but supported by downstream demand, the market operated smoothly without obvious supply surplus or shortage [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand showed a structurally differentiated pattern. The demand in major downstream sectors such as olefins, dimethyl ether, and glacial acetic acid was good. The average weekly operating rate of olefin enterprises increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether increased significantly, mainly driven by the restart of Xinlianxin's plant. The operating load of the glacial acetic acid industry increased by 3.24 percentage points, and the resumption of production at plants such as Anhui Huayi promoted the overall recovery of the industry. However, the downstream demand for formaldehyde was obviously weak. Affected by environmental protection control in autumn and winter, the operating rates of the panel industry in northern Jiangsu and Henan decreased, resulting in a significant reduction in formaldehyde procurement demand. At the same time, the downstream loads of MTBE and methane chloride decreased, while products such as DMF and methylal maintained stable operation. Overall, methanol demand presented a pattern of "strong and weak co - existing". The demand in major downstream sectors was well - supported, but the demand in some areas weakened due to policy influence. The overall market demand was moderate, providing some support for methanol prices but without obvious upward momentum [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory showed a regional differentiated pattern. The inventory in port areas continued to decline. In consumption areas such as Guangdong and Fujian, due to the rigid demand consumption and stable提货 volume of downstream industries, the inventory decreased steadily. The total inventory in major ports was 1.6085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.91%, indicating that the overall inventory pressure had been relieved. The estimated port arrivals in late November are expected to increase slightly, but due to the continuous support of the reverse - flow window for提货 and the uncertain unloading situation, inventory fluctuations are limited. The inventory of upstream production enterprises remained at a low level, providing some support for the production areas. However, against the background of high inventory supply in coastal areas, attention should be paid to the possible impact on regional prices if low - priced imported goods flow back to inland markets such as Shandong. Overall, methanol inventory was within a reasonable range, supply and demand were basically balanced, and the market operated steadily [2] Methanol Profit - The profits of methanol production enterprises were generally under pressure, and all process routes showed a downward trend. The profit decline of coal - to - methanol enterprises was the most obvious, mainly due to the increase in coal prices pushing up costs, while the methanol market price decreased simultaneously, forming a double squeeze. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia has turned negative, and the loss has widened compared with last week. Other process routes such as coke oven gas - to - methanol and natural gas - to - methanol also faced profit pressure, and the loss of natural gas - to - methanol in Southwest China intensified. Overall, the pressure on the cost side and the weakness on the price side formed a double squeeze, continuously narrowing the profit margin of methanol production enterprises, and the overall industry profit performance was weak [2] Downstream Profit - The profits of downstream industries showed an obvious recovery trend, mainly due to the relief of cost pressure brought about by the decline in the price of raw material methanol. The profit improvement in the MTO and glacial acetic acid industries was the most significant, and the profit levels increased significantly. Although the MTBE industry was weak in its own market, after the reduction of raw material costs, its profit still failed to turn positive, only showing a narrowing of the loss. The profits of industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and chloride fluctuated slightly and remained relatively stable. The improvement of downstream industry profits provided positive support for methanol demand, helped relieve the supply - demand pressure in the methanol market, and provided some bottom support for methanol prices [2] Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of methanol in various regions from November 19th to 21st, 2025, including regions such as Taicang (import, different time periods), Hebei, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Sichuan, Dongying, etc., along with their daily and previous - day price changes and corresponding percentage changes [4] Market Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend chart of the main methanol futures contract (showing closing price, settlement price, and trading volume), basis and monthly spread charts, methanol production and operating rate charts, profit charts of different methanol production processes, factory inventory and order quantity charts, port inventory charts, and profit and operating rate charts of downstream industries [5][8][14]