原油周报（SC）：俄乌和平协议推进，国际油价弱势下行-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand remains bearish. With the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, oil prices will still fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC's October production data shows different trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. IEA also reports production changes in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand growth in 2025 and 2026, with a neutral outlook [3] - Inventory (Short - Term): U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreases, while strategic petroleum reserve inventory increases. There are also changes in refined oil inventories, showing a bullish sign [3] - Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term): OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market supply glut. Saudi Arabia's exports and production reach new highs, being bearish [3] - Geopolitics (Short - Term): The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are expected to have a bearish impact on oil prices [3] - Macro - Finance (Short - Term): U.S. employment data and the Fed's interest - rate cut probability changes are bearish factors for oil prices [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, sell on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - Market Review: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the rise of the U.S. dollar index lead to a weak decline in international oil prices. As of November 21, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all fall [7] - Month - to - Month Spread & Domestic - Foreign Spread: Near - month spreads weaken, while domestic - foreign spreads strengthen [11] - Forward Curve: Near - month spreads strengthen [24] - Crack Spread: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel crack spreads all strengthen [31][43] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: In October 2025, global crude oil production decreases according to EIA. Different organizations report different production trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. U.S. production also shows changes [65][90] - Inventory: U.S. commercial inventory decreases, and Cushing inventory also declines. Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, while Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [91][99] - Demand: In the U.S., gasoline implied demand decreases, and refinery operating rates increase. In China, refinery weekly crude oil processing volume shows different trends, and refinery profits improve [109][127] - Macro - Finance: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index rebounds [140] - CFTC Positioning: Speculative net short positions in WTI crude oil increase [143] Team Introduction - The energy and chemical research center team of Guomao Futures has 6 members with diverse professional backgrounds and rich experience in fundamental and spot - futures research. The team has won many awards [155]