长江期货贵金属周报：非农强于预期，价格延续调整-20251124

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Due to the stronger-than-expected US September non-farm payroll data and hawkish statements from multiple Fed officials, the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut is about 50%, and precious metal prices continue to adjust. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end-point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. With the influence of Trump on the Fed's independence emerging and the slowdown of the US employment situation, although Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, the Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, and the October meeting minutes show that further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed. Given the weakening trend of US economic data and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that precious metal prices will still be supported in the medium term but remain in an adjustment state in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Gold: The US September non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, and multiple Fed officials made hawkish statements, causing the price of US gold to fluctuate and adjust. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4,063 per ounce, down 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,150, and the lower support level is $3,950 [6]. - Silver: The US September non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, and multiple Fed officials made hawkish statements, leading to a fluctuating adjustment in the price of US silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.1%, closing at $50.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $51.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The precious metal prices continue to adjust due to the strong non-farm payroll data and hawkish Fed statements. There is uncertainty about the December interest rate cut, and the expected end-point of the interest rate cut has been lowered. The US economic data is weakening, and concerns about the fiscal situation and Fed independence support the medium-term precious metal prices, but they are in short-term adjustment [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Multiple charts are presented, including the US dollar index, euro-to-US dollar and pound-to-US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates (10-year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10-year and 2-year), yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), Fed balance sheet size and its weekly changes, gold-silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [15][17][19][21]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - US September Non-farm Payrolls: The seasonally adjusted change in non-farm employment was 1.19 million, higher than the expected 0.5 million and the previous value of 0.22 million. - US September Unemployment Rate: It was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7% [24]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said that as monetary policy gradually approaches a level that will not put downward pressure on inflation, the Fed needs to "proceed with caution" in further interest rate cuts. He believes that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month was appropriate considering the rising risks in the job market and the recent "easing" of inflation. - US employment growth accelerated in September, but the labor market remained weak, unable to keep up with the pace of new job seekers. Employers are dealing with the impact of import tariffs and introducing artificial intelligence into some positions. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest in four years. Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.19 million, far higher than the economists' forecast of 0.5 million, and the August data was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 jobs, highlighting the weakness of the labor market [25]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19,233.59 kg to 1,143,494.71 kg, while the SHFE inventory remained unchanged at 90,426 kg. - Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465,546.71 kg to 14,329,462.14 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 57,623 kg to 519,271 kg [13][28]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of October 7, the CFTC speculative fund net long positions for gold were 225,202 contracts, a decrease of 22,879 contracts from the previous week; for silver, they were 43,722 contracts, a decrease of 4,363 contracts from the previous week [13][33]. 3.8 This Week's Focus - On Wednesday, November 26, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 will be released [35].