Investment Rating - The industry is rated as 'Outperform' for the next 12-18 months, indicating an expected return exceeding the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [22][34]. Core Insights - The report indicates that major cities experienced mixed transaction results, with stable policies contributing to market volatility. It is anticipated that the market will stabilize by year-end, benefiting quality real estate firms through the ongoing promotion of new development models [22][23]. - New home transactions in 30 major cities rose to 1.94 million square meters in the 47th week of 2025, reflecting a 22.5% increase from the previous week but a 23.0% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a decline in sales, while second-tier cities experienced a significant increase [23]. - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities decreased to 2.09 million square meters, down 1.44% from the previous week and down 13.8% year-on-year. First-tier cities also reported declines, while third-tier cities showed a slight increase [24]. - Land transaction growth in 100 cities continued to slow, with land supply at 47.04 million square meters and transactions at 13.72 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 3.43. The cumulative land transfer revenue for the year reached RMB 1.89 trillion, down 2.72% year-on-year [25]. - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities rose to 23.13 months, indicating a continued increase in the time required to clear available inventory [26]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the 47th week of 2025, new home sales reached 1.94 million square meters, up 22.5% week-on-week but down 23.0% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 420,000 square meters, down 4.4% week-on-week and down 49% year-on-year. Second-tier cities sold 1.18 million square meters, up 45.7% week-on-week but down 8% year-on-year. Third-tier cities sold 340,000 square meters, up 1.62% week-on-week and down 16.6% year-on-year [23]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in the 47th week of 2025 totaled 2.09 million square meters, down 1.44% from the previous week and down 13.8% year-on-year. First-tier cities sold 817,000 square meters, down 3.9% week-on-week and down 18.7% year-on-year. Second-tier cities sold 841,000 square meters, down 1.26% week-on-week and down 19.6% year-on-year. Third-tier cities sold 435,000 square meters, up 3.2% week-on-week and up 15.55% year-on-year [24]. Land Transactions - Land supply in the 47th week was 47.04 million square meters, with transactions at 13.72 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 3.43. The cumulative land transfer revenue for the year was RMB 1.89 trillion, down 2.72% year-on-year [25]. Inventory Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities was reported at 23.13 months, reflecting a 2.50% increase from the previous month and a 0.90% increase year-on-year [26].
第47周成交震荡，市场稳定有助推进新发展模式
Haitong Securities International·2025-11-24 08:32