Zhongyuan Securities·2025-11-24 08:25Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuation of investment and financing coordination development in the securities industry, predicting a sustained industry boom in 2026 [8][16][20] - The report maintains a "market synchronization" investment rating for the securities sector, highlighting the expected strong performance of the equity market in 2026 [8][16][20] Group 1: "14th Five-Year Plan" Recommendations - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the direction for capital market reform, emphasizing the need for a more inclusive and adaptable market system [14][15] - The plan aims to enhance the coordination of investment and financing functions within the capital market, promoting high-quality development [15][20] Group 2: 2025 Performance Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed securities firms showed significant recovery, with revenues increasing by 42.55% year-on-year and net profits rising by 62.38% [8][16][20] - The main drivers of this performance were retail brokerage, margin financing, and directional equity business, while fixed income and asset management businesses experienced declines [8][16][20] Group 3: 2026 Business Outlook - The brokerage business is expected to maintain high levels of activity, with average daily stock trading volumes remaining at historical highs [8][16][20] - Investment banking is projected to see a continued recovery in equity financing, while debt financing will also grow, contributing positively to overall revenue [8][16][20] - The asset management sector is anticipated to experience narrow fluctuations in revenue, with limited impact on overall performance [8][16][20] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading listed securities firms that are likely to play a pivotal role in the sector's recovery [8][16][20] - It also highlights the importance of mid-sized firms with differentiated competitive advantages and those with strong performance resilience [8][16][20] - Key recommended companies include CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, GF Securities, Dongwu Securities, Caitong Securities, and Guojin Securities [8][16][20] Group 5: Market Trends - The securities sector is expected to experience wide fluctuations in 2026, with average valuations around 1.54 times P/B, consistent with the average over the past decade [8][16][20] - The report notes that the securities index has shown a range-bound performance, underperforming the CSI 300 index [8][16][20]