粕类周报：区间震荡，关注南美天气-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term focus is on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without significant weather issues, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The USDA November supply - demand report adjusted the US soybean yield, exports, and ending stocks in 2025/26, with less - than - expected bullish effects. Brazil's new soybean production is forecasted to reach 1.776 billion tons. As of November 15, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 69.0%, and Argentina's was 15% as of November 13. Attention should be paid to dry weather in some regions and the influence of the weak La Niña pattern. Domestic soybean meal is expected to destock from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter remains loose. The supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to policy changes between China, Canada, and Australia. The global rapeseed production is expected to increase in 2025/26 [5]. - Demand: In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect future supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and its downstream far - month trading volume has increased with good提货 performance, while the downstream trading and提货 of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a historical high for the same period and are expected to destock from November to December. The inventory days of soybean meal for feed enterprises have decreased to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously destocking [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is neutral [5]. - Profit: The profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing is poor, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [5]. - Valuation: From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, it is at a relatively high - to - neutral valuation [5]. - Macro and Policy: The US side said that China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans recently [5]. - Investment Viewpoint: The market is expected to be volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. If there are no obvious weather problems, the market from December to January is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop, and it is recommended to short M05 on rallies [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Volatile. Risk factors: Policy and weather. Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. Part Two: Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Meal Products - Soybean Inventory - Consumption Ratio: In November, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased, and the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio also decreased [32]. - Rapeseed Inventory - Consumption Ratio: In the November report, the global rapeseed inventory - consumption ratio decreased [38]. - Rapeseed Production and Distribution: The global rapeseed production and its distribution are presented, with Canada accounting for 22%, the European Union 21%, China 18%, etc. [42][43]. - Brazilian Planting Progress: The Brazilian soybean planting progress is shown, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the planting [48]. - US Soybean Domestic Crushing Profit: The US soybean domestic crushing profit is rising [50]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Import - Related Data: Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume, CNF premiums, and import crushing profit are presented [68][71]. - Domestic Inventory and Consumption Data: Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventory data, as well as data on oil mill operation rate, crushing volume, trading volume, and提货 volume, are provided. The data shows that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, while feed enterprise inventories are at a low level. Soybean meal far - month trading volume has increased with good提货 performance, while rapeseed meal trading and提货 are cautious [78][98]. - Feed and Livestock Breeding Data: Data on feed production, livestock and poultry breeding profits, and related prices and weights are presented, showing that current livestock and poultry breeding profits are poor, and pig prices have declined slightly with no obvious weight reduction [111][117].