半导体与半导体生产设备行业周报、月报：存储原厂扩大DRAM产能，挤压NAND产能导致供给偏紧-20251124

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the expansion of DRAM production capacity by original manufacturers is squeezing NAND production capacity, leading to a tight supply situation [1] - Global smartphone sales are beginning to slow down, with Q3 2025 shipments estimated at approximately 300 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 0.5% [22] - The global wafer foundry revenue is expected to reach $199 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and is projected to exceed $230 billion in 2026 due to the expansion of AI applications [27] Market Indices - The overseas AI chip index fell by 5.05% this week, with AMD and Marvell down 17.4% and 10.4% respectively [1][10] - The domestic AI chip index also decreased by 5.3%, with significant declines in companies like Hengxuan Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation [1][10] - The storage chip index dropped by 15.3%, with Shannon Semiconductor experiencing a decline of 27.6% [1][15] Industry Data - Chinese panel manufacturers are accelerating the expansion of AMOLED production capacity, expected to increase their global share from 34% in 2020 to 48.2% by 2025 [23] - The global wafer foundry market is projected to grow significantly, reaching $3.9 trillion by 2030 [27] - DRAM prices have seen a cumulative increase of 50% this year, with current market prices for DDR5 and DDR4 showing significant discrepancies [30][31] Major Events - Samsung plans to expand its 2nm foundry process capacity to 21,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, a growth of 163% from the end of 2024 [39] - SK Hynix anticipates adding 20,000 wafers of 1c DRAM capacity by the end of 2025, with further expansions planned for 2026 [41] - Apple has significantly increased its chip orders from TSMC, expecting to add 4 to 5 million A19 and A19 Pro chips in the next two months [42]