集运指数欧线周报（EC）：运价落地不佳，EC弱势震荡-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the container shipping industry is "weak and volatile" [3] Core Viewpoints - The future trend of the container shipping industry will show a weak and volatile pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of the January price increase letter, and seasonal changes in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Spot Freight Rates: Bearish. In early December, MSK quoted $2500, HPL quoted $2700, OOCL quoted $2400, CMA quoted $3550, EMC quoted $3100, ONE and MSC quoted $2450 [3] - Political and Economic Factors: Neutral. The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthis officially announced to stop maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [3] - Capacity Supply: Bullish. The average weekly capacity deployment in September was 290,000, in October was 245,000, in November was 265,000, and in December is expected to be 290,000 [3] - Demand: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years. PA + MSC has the lowest loading rate in the alliance and is more likely to cut prices, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - Summary and Outlook - The market will be weak and volatile. If the top shipping companies maintain the quote range of $2400 - $2600 per FEU in December and there is no large - scale overbooking, the near - month contracts of EC will continue to be under pressure. The implementation of the January price increase letter may face difficulties. The traditional peak season from late December to early January may bring short - term freight rate boosts if there is an unexpected increase in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter. If the December freight rates are implemented at 80% of the quoted price, the EC2602 contract may test the range of 1500 - 1700 points; if the price is successfully maintained, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [3] - Investment Viewpoint and Trading Strategy - The investment viewpoint is "weak and volatile". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and macro - policy disturbances at home and abroad [3] Part Two: Price - There are graphs showing the European Line Index, US West Line Index, US East Line Index, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [6] Part Three: Static Capacity - Order Volume, Delivery Volume, Demolition Volume, and Future Delivery - There are graphs showing the order volume, delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2029 [12][15][21] - Ship Prices - There are graphs showing the new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [28][34][36] - Existing Capacity of Container Ships - There are graphs showing the existing capacity, average age, and demolition average age of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [43][50][52] Part Four: Dynamic Capacity - Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports) - There are graphs showing the total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, MSC capacity deployment, and OCEAN capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 [58][60][62] - Container Ship Desulfurization Tower Installation, Speed, and Idle Capacity - There are graphs showing the container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those under installation, average speed, and idle capacity from 2018 - 2025 [69][73][77]