超长端承压走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Market sentiment is supported by expectations of further monetary policy easing in Q4, but global liquidity concerns lead to a decline in various assets, including bonds. However, considering China's independence, the pattern of bonds with a ceiling and a floor is difficult to break, and the 10 - year spot bond yield may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85% [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the marginal decline of the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt - driven models, and new growth drivers still in the cultivation stage, along with potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally rebound in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures. The synergy of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and the low - interest - rate environment are key for policy implementation. The logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views - Weekly Market Review: Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed slight differentiation among different tenors. The ultra - long - end declined, while other tenors fluctuated within a limited range. The market was mainly influenced by the resonance of domestic and foreign financial markets and various assets. News of real - estate stimulus policies in China, concerns about the sustainability of Nvidia's performance, and the divergence in expectations of the Fed's December interest - rate cut all contributed to the market movement. Multiple assets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, declined due to liquidity concerns, and the safe - haven function of the domestic bond market failed [4]. - Market Data: The report provides closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest data for different Treasury bond futures contracts [5]. 3.2 Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - Open Market Operations: The report presents data on the volume and price of open - market operations, including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection [10][11]. - Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF): Information on the volume and price of MLF operations, such as the amount of MLF recovery, the amount of MLF injection, and the interest rate of MLF, is provided [12][13][16]. - Funding Costs: Data on various funding costs, including deposit - based repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and Shanghai Stock Exchange repurchase rates, are presented [18][19]. - Yield and Spread: The report shows data on Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads [34][36][38]. 3.3 Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - Basis: Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are provided [44][45][47]. - Net Basis: Information on the net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures is presented [52][53][57]. - Implied Repo Rate (IRR): Data on the IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown [59][60][62]. - Implied Interest Rate: The report provides data on the implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [65][66].