供需双减，山东地区价格趋稳

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][3] Group 2: Core Views - The investment view on asphalt is that it will fluctuate, with high supply and declining demand, and the overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [3] - The trading strategy suggests a single - sided approach with a fluctuating outlook and no arbitrage opportunities [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In November, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.25 million tons, a 18% month - on - month decrease and a 3% year - on - year decrease. Different production entities showed different trends. This week, the asphalt supply contracted due to device shutdowns and conversions, and the supply - demand structure improved [3] - Demand: This week, the overall asphalt demand weakened. Although the shipment volume in Shandong increased, the overall demand was still declining. As some terminal projects ended, the demand further weakened, and the weak demand was a significant negative factor for prices [3] - Inventory: This week, the domestic asphalt inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. The inventory is expected to continue to decline next week, and the supply - demand pattern will further improve [3] - Cost: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated. Geopolitical factors first pushed up oil prices, and then the news of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a partial decline in oil prices. The price fluctuated with limited upward momentum [3] 2. Price - The report presents historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 - 2025 [5][8] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - Spread: It shows the historical trends of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 - 2025 [12][13] - Basis: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in regions such as South China, East China, and Shandong from 2024 - 2025 [14] 4. Supply - Production Forecast: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in regions such as North China and South China from 2021 - 2025 [17][21] - Capacity Utilization: It shows the historical trends of capacity utilization of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 - 2025 [29][33] - Maintenance Loss: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 - 2025 [40] 5. Cost and Profit - Production Gross Margin: It shows the historical trends of asphalt production gross margin in Shandong from 2021 - 2025 [43][44] - Diluted Asphalt: It shows the price, premium, and port inventory trends of diluted asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [47][48] 6. Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 - 2025 [52][55] - Social Inventory: It shows the social inventory in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 - 2025 [58] 7. Demand - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical trends of asphalt shipment volume in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 - 2025 [61] - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the historical trends of operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions from 2018 - 2025 [63][70]