聚酯周报：PX供给持续紧张，聚酯震荡偏强-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the polyester industry is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side with no obvious driving force [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The tight supply of PX is expected to continue until 2026, which is beneficial to the PTA market. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, the polyester industry maintains a high operating rate, and the export prospects of polyester products are optimistic. Overall, the polyester market is expected to be strong [4][67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The tight supply of PX raw materials is intensified as refineries prioritize using reformate for gasoline blending. The tight PX supply - demand pattern is expected to last until 2026, benefiting the PTA market [4]. - Demand: PTA supply is slightly tightened, the polyester industry operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export inquiry of polyester products has increased, and the export prospects are optimistic [4]. - Inventory: PTA port inventory has increased this week, and the market is in a continuous inventory - building state [4]. - Basis: The PTA basis has continued to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $260, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around $200 [4]. - Valuation: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. With the decline of reformer unit profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4]. - Macro Policy: According to the UK's Daily Telegraph, if Trump's Ukraine peace plan is implemented, Russia may be lifted from Western sanctions [4]. - Investment View: It is expected to be mainly on the strong side with no obvious driving force [4]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. PART TWO: Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Crude Oil: Rumors of a Russia - Ukraine agreement have led to weak crude oil prices. On November 21, Ukrainian President Zelensky agreed to work on a peace plan drafted by the US and Russia [6][10]. - Gasoline: US gasoline inventory has been continuously decreasing. The low inventory of US gasoline supports the aromatics market. The cracking profit of gasoline has reached a two - year high, and more reformate is used for internal gasoline blending [11][29]. PART THREE: Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - Aromatics: The supply of PX has shrunk, and the futures price is leading the spot price. The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, and there are rumors of physical goods circulation. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the maintenance of reformer units has increased [32][42][48]. - PX: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. The pricing is closely linked to futures after the listing of PX futures. The supply in November reached a high for the year, but the strong gasoline blending profit restricts the production increase willingness of overseas producers. The demand is healthy overall, but there are potential pressures on the 2026 contract negotiation [51][60]. PART FOUR: Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory at East China ethylene glycol ports has increased significantly compared with last week. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price lacks effective support. The new device production increases the supply pressure, but the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support the demand [81]. - Polyester: The polyester industry maintains a high load, and the weaving load is optimistic. The export demand is expected to boost the market [91][93].