【原木周报(LG)】原木期现价格偏弱运行-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. Consider shorting after a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, a monthly increase of 8. The total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [4][21]. - Demand: From November 10th to November 16th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters, a 1.06% decrease from the previous week [4]. - Inventory: As of November 14th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.68% week - on - week increase [4]. - Valuation: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, and the valuation is low [4]. - Investment View: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. Consider shorting after a rebound [4]. - Trading Strategy: No specific unilateral or arbitrage strategies are provided. Attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Price: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The far - month contracts have limited further downward space after a sharp decline, while the near - month contracts continued to fall due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. The current log spot market is weak, and shorting after a rebound is considered [9]. - Open Interest: As of November 21, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 23,721 lots, an 8.6% increase from the previous week. The open interest of the main log futures contract 2601 was 17,585 lots, a 10.2% increase from the previous week [10]. - Spot Price: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine in different specifications decreased, and the prices of Jiangsu radiata pine in different specifications also showed certain changes [12]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a 4.67% monthly decrease and a 7.14% year - on - year decrease. From January to October 2025, the total imports were about 19.9238 million cubic meters, an 8.04% year - on - year decrease. In October 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a 0.23% monthly decrease and a 12.47% year - on - year increase. From January to October 2025, the total imports from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a 1.80% year - on - year increase [18]. - Shipping Volume: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, a monthly increase of 8. The total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [21]. - Inventory: As of November 14th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.68% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, a 20,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week, a 0.83% week - on - week increase. The North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week, a 10.00% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week [29]. - Outbound Volume: From November 10th to November 16th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters, a 1.06% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,700 cubic meters, a 3.17% decrease from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,400 cubic meters, a 7.02% increase from the previous week [32]. - Processing: As of November 21, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan per cubic meter, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week [35].