Investment Rating - The report rates the company as "Outperform" with a target price of 47.74 USD based on a 25x PE for 2025 [4][12]. Core Insights - The company focuses on growth and market share, with a significant increase in store numbers and same-store sales driven by takeaway demand [14]. - Financial performance shows strong revenue growth, with a projected increase in net profit for 2025-2027 [4][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 24,903 million RMB in 2023 to 66,341 million RMB in 2027, reflecting an 87.34% increase in 2023 and a 10.92% increase in 2027 [3]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 2,848 million RMB in 2023 to 5,320 million RMB in 2027, with a notable growth of 483.30% in 2023 [3]. - The company’s operating profit margin (OPM) for Q3 2025 is reported at 17.5%, down 6.0 percentage points year-on-year [15]. Store Expansion and Market Dynamics - As of Q3 2025, the company operates 29,214 stores, a 36.88% increase year-on-year, with a net addition of 3,008 stores in Q3 [14]. - The average monthly active users reached 112.30 million, up 40.6% year-on-year, indicating strong customer engagement [14]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The company is optimizing its cost structure through refined operations, despite facing pressure from high international coffee bean prices [15]. - The takeaway fee rate increased to 18.90%, up 9.79% year-on-year, impacting profit margins [15].
瑞幸咖啡：2025Q3 业绩点评：首次覆盖：聚焦份额增长，短期利润率承压
Haitong Securities International·2025-11-24 09:15