蛋白数据日报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January. Pay attention to the trend of new - crop discounts, which is expected to drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot in Dalian on November 21st was 78, down 5. The basis in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc. showed different values and changes [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong decreased by 101. There were also data on spreads such as M1 - M5, M1 - RM1, RM1 - 5, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [4][5] Supply - related Data - According to CONA data, the predicted output of Brazil's new soybean crop in the 25/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 15th, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0% (last week: 88.4%, same period last year: 73.8%, five - year average: 67.2%). As of November 13th, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 15% (last week: 7%, same period last year: 25%) [6] - The shipping purchase progress for December - January 2025 is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will be destocked from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be relatively loose [6] Demand - related Data - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, supporting the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the far - month trading volume of soybean meal downstream has increased recently with good提货 performance [7] Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history and are expected to be destocked from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7] Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0713, and the futures crushing margin was - 50.00 yuan/ton. There were also data on soybean CNF premiums in Brazil in different months, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, port soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, soybean crushing volume, and oil mill operating rate [5]