纯苯&苯乙烯周报：海外汽油裂差走强，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with an expected upward trend due to increasing costs [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are oscillating with a slight upward trend. The cost of styrene is increasing, but there are multiple influencing factors in the market, including supply, demand, inventory, and macro - policies, which lead to an overall oscillating market situation [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $200, and the spread between styrene and benzene is $125/barrel. The spread has slightly expanded, but the production profit of non - integrated plants remains negative, showing a bullish signal [5]. - Demand: As of November 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 147,000 tons, a 30.09% increase from the previous period and a 24.89% increase year - on - year. There are more rumors of supply - side maintenance, and overseas demand remains poor due to the low operating rate of derivatives, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Inventory: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 148,300 tons, a 15.16% decrease from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 87,300 tons, a 14.24% decrease from the previous period, showing a neutral signal [5]. - Basis: The styrene basis has strengthened slightly. The rising overseas pure benzene price supports the upward movement of styrene price, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Profit: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $200, and the spread between benzene and naphtha is about $125, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Valuation: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. The centralized maintenance of reforming units is promoting price increases, showing a neutral signal [5]. - Macro - policy: There is news that Moscow has not learned that Kiev has agreed to negotiate on Trump's peace plan, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Investment view: Styrene costs are increasing, and it is expected to be mainly bullish, but the overall market is oscillating [5]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - Crude oil: There is a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine conflict agreement, and crude oil prices are weakly operating [7]. - Styrene: Styrene has rebounded, but the integrated profit is still poor. The port inventory of styrene continues to decline slightly [14][25]. - Pure benzene: Derivative demand is dragging down, while overseas gasoline blending demand is pushing up the price of pure benzene [37]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - Styrene downstream - ABS: Domestic and overseas demand is weak in the off - season. The profit of PS has slightly recovered, while the profit of EPS is poor, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Aniline production has increased, but the profit has decreased. Phenol port inventory has accumulated. Adipic acid load has decreased, and the profit has declined. Caprolactam inventory has decreased [52][65][74][84][94][105][116]. - Appliances: The export demand of household appliances is dragging down the performance of the sector [124].