Guoxin Securities·2025-11-24 09:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][7][14]. Core Views - The home appliance industry is experiencing pressure on both domestic and international sales due to high base effects, with October retail sales down 15% year-on-year. White goods and black goods are expected to see retail sales declines exceeding 20%, while small appliances are performing slightly better [2][3][19]. - In October, the total sales volume of air conditioners in China decreased by 20.1%, with domestic sales down 21.3% and exports down 19.0%. The pressure on production for December remains significant, although export production is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [4][45]. - The report highlights a 13.3% year-on-year decline in home appliance export value in October, with washing machines and vacuum cleaners showing stable performance. The export value of air conditioners fell by 29.3% [5][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Hisense Visual for black goods; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs for small appliances [6][14][15]. 2. Market Performance - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +1.47% this week, while the broader market (CSI 300 Index) declined by 3.77% [60]. 3. Retail Demand Analysis - In October, retail sales of home appliances faced significant declines, with major categories like air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines experiencing drops of over 20% in retail value [3][20][19]. 4. Export Performance - The report notes a continued decline in home appliance exports, with a significant drop in air conditioner exports and stable performance in washing machines and vacuum cleaners [5][47]. 5. Production Insights - December air conditioner production is under pressure, with domestic production expected to decline by 22.6% year-on-year, while export production is projected to decrease by 8.2% [4][45]. 6. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks key data such as raw material prices, shipping indices, and real estate performance, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [60][62][76].