航运衍生品数据日报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for shipping derivatives shows a mixed performance. The overall trend of the EC market is downward, and the future market will show a volatile and weak pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of the January price increase letter, and seasonal changes in cargo volume. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index - Current and Previous Values and Changes: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1394, down 3.98% from the previous value of 1451; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1123, up 2.63% from 1094. For different routes, SCFI - West America is at 1645, down 9.76% from 1823; SCFI - East America is at 2384, down 8.31% from 2600; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1367, down 3.53% from 1417; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1357, down 9.77% from 1504; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2055, up 1.28% from 2029 [5]. Energy - Related Contracts - Price and Position Changes: For energy - related contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., prices are mostly down. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1350.0, down 2.25% from 1381.1. In terms of positions, EC2608's position increased by 100 to 1324, while EC2512's position decreased by 737 to 7323 [5]. - Month - Spread Changes: The 12 - 02 month - spread is currently at 217.8, up 73.1 from 144.7; the 12 - 04 month - spread is at 640.7, up 28.0 from 612.7; the 02 - 04 month - spread is at 422.9, down 45.1 from 468.0 [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Market Outlook: The EC market's future trend will be volatile and weak. If leading shipping companies like Maersk maintain a quote range of $2400 - 2600/FEU in December and there is no large - scale over - booking, the near - month EC contracts will continue to be under pressure. The implementation of the January price increase letter depends on cargo volume and shipping company quotes. The period from late December to early January is a traditional peak season, and if cargo volume exceeds expectations, it may briefly boost freight rates [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value. If the December freight rates are implemented at an 80% discount, the EC2602 contract may test the 1500 - 1700 point range; if the price - holding is successful, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [7][8]. Other Information - The last trading Monday for futures in February 2026 is February 9, and the last trading day for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures BC2602 contract is also February 9, 2026 [6]. - There are events such as Iran's actions in the Oman Bay and a ship's actual route deviation from the schedule [6].