Guohai Securities·2025-11-24 10:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing a decline in performance due to high base effects, with expectations of a decrease in passenger vehicle year-on-year growth by the end of 2025. However, the high-end passenger vehicle market is expected to perform relatively better in 2026 due to policy adjustments [17] - The report highlights the rapid iteration capabilities of new models such as the Xiangjie S9 and Xiaopeng X9, indicating a trend towards advanced driving technologies becoming more accessible [14][15] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the commercial vehicle sector, particularly heavy trucks, with a recovery in domestic demand anticipated in 2025 [17] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.9% from November 17 to November 21, 2025 [5][18] - The Guangzhou Auto Show showcased 93 new car launches, with 58% being new energy vehicles, indicating a strong market presence for innovative technologies [13] Key Developments - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 and Xiaopeng X9 models reflects the industry's focus on high-end features and rapid product updates, with prices ranging from 309,800 to 369,800 yuan for the S9 [14] - Huawei's conference highlighted advancements in L3 autonomous driving technology, predicting a penetration rate of 30% by 2025 and over 50% by 2027 [15][16] Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, companies with quality offerings above 300,000 yuan are expected to benefit, with recommendations including Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Xiaopeng, Great Wall, SAIC, Li Auto, Seres, and BYD [17] - In the parts sector, companies benefiting from the penetration of high-level intelligence into lower-priced models are recommended, including Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot [17] - In the commercial vehicle segment, companies like Weichai Power, Foton, and China National Heavy Duty Truck are recommended due to expected recovery in heavy truck demand [17]