瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251124

Report Date - The report is dated November 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the domestic market, the new cotton harvest is nearly finished, commercial cotton inventory is seasonally rising, and the pressure of new cotton listing is emerging. The import cotton ports maintain a pattern of more out than in and are at the highest level in four months. On the demand side, spinning mills' orders increase limitedly, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for domestic cotton textile exports, supporting cotton prices. Overall, domestic demand improves marginally, with support at the bottom and suppression from increased supply at the top. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 89,472 hands, down 10,304 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 504 hands, down 181 hands. - Cotton main - contract positions are 551,915 hands, up 5,004 hands; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 21,700 hands, up 752 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,240 sheets, down 4 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 14 sheets, down 3 sheets [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,792 yuan/ton; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 21,105 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 13,852 yuan/ton; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 22,369 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons. - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,794 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory is 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons [2] Industrial Situation - Cotton import volume is 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - Imported cotton profit is 941 yuan/ton, up 413 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory is 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; fabric output is 2.62 billion meters, down 1.8 million meters; yarn output is 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; grey - fabric inventory days are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days [2] - For clothing and clothing accessories, the monthly export amount is 110,034.8043 million US dollars, down 14,497.6657 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, the monthly export amount is 112,584.1892 million US dollars, down 7,080.9708 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 5.16%, down 0.53 percentage points; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 5.16%, down 0.53 percentage points. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 4.73%, down 0.07 percentage points; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 7.39%, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, US non - commercial long positions in cotton were 70,902 hands, down 1,689 hands from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 129,324 hands, up 6,748 hands from the previous week; net short positions were 58,422 hands, up 8,437 hands from the previous week. - As of the week ending November 18, about 51% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 47% the previous week. - For the week ending October 2, US current - year cotton export sales increased by 199,000 bales, up 28% from the previous week and 43% from the average of the previous 4 weeks; US cotton export shipments were 157,700 bales, up 34% from the previous week and 25% from the average of the previous 4 weeks [2]