Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-24 10:32Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption of previously overhauled units has driven up domestic urea production. This week, 2 enterprises are expected to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises that stopped production may resume. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the change in production is expected to be limited [2]. - Recently, the procurement of Northeast reserve demand has been concentrated, but the procurement volume may slow down after the previous appropriate replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has slightly increased, and enterprises are gradually arranging production of winter - storage fertilizers. It is expected that the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity will increase slightly in the short term [2]. - With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing. Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises decreased, and the Northeast reserve demand increased significantly, leading to obvious inventory reduction in some enterprises. The prices of urea enterprises in major production and sales areas have fluctuated differently, and although the prices have risen in some regions, the inventory reduction is limited. Recently, the advance orders of some urea enterprises have increased, and they are mainly focused on active sales. The inventory of urea enterprises may continue to decline [2]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1670 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1638 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan compared with the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 232315 lots, a decrease of 10931 lots compared with the previous period. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 23589 lots, an increase of 7570 lots [2]. - The number of exchange warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou urea is 7570, an increase of 387 compared with the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Hebei is 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; in Henan, it is 1650 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 1640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Shandong, it is 1640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1640 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan compared with the previous period. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 362.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 400 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with the previous period. The enterprise inventory is 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points. The daily urea output is 202,900 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons. The monthly output of urea is 5.87127 million tons, an increase of 132,600 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points. The operating rate of melamine is 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 3.6287 million tons, a decrease of 1.0331 million tons. The weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons compared with the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 3.13%. During this period, the urea price fluctuated upward, the reserve demand in the Northeast increased significantly, and some enterprises significantly reduced their inventory [2]. - As of November 20, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 21.95%. Although there are expectations of continuous container collection, the shipment is relatively slow, and the port inventory mainly shows a small increase. Most port inventories are at a low level, and the overall port level does not fluctuate much [2]. - As of November 20, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4204 million tons, an increase of 43,500 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points compared with the previous period, showing a slight downward trend. During the cycle, 3 new enterprises' units stopped production, 1 stopped - production unit resumed production, and with the continuation of the unit changes in the previous cycle, the output increased significantly this week [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].