瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term port reverse - flow inland arbitrage space may remain continuously open, the import apparent demand may continue to be at a high level, and the port methanol inventory is expected to change little. The suppression of high inventory on the port methanol market may continue, and the unloading speed of foreign vessels needs to be specifically monitored [2]. - The load of olefin enterprises in East China has been slightly adjusted, the olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly last week. There is no planned adjustment expected for olefin enterprises this week, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2077 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 73 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 121 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract is 1,312,680 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 89,794 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 157,412 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 2,400 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2035 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1965 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 42 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 233 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 256 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 84 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.58 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0178 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 38,600 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 461,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 25,700 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol is - 16.9 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.6126 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 185,700 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 358,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 88.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.69 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.01%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.69%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 69.59%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.46 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.97%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins is 89.65%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 659 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 20.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 20.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,600 tons or 2.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 246,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 900 tons or 0.37% [2]. - As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4793 million tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 38,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 25,700 tons [2]. - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, and the weekly average operating rate increased slightly [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - The enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday should be noted [2].