瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251124

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a situation of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly weakened demand affected by the off - season. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,380 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,736 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2]. - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,808 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, up 3,925 tons [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 715 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 786.50 million tons per month, down 13.40%; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 730.23 million tons per month, up 25.92 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in China was 158,360.01 tons per month, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume was 32.46 tons per month, down 36.08 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,261.37 tons per month, up 4,462 tons; the export volume was 24,573.56 tons per month, down 4,396.36 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons per month, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons per month, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons per month, down 2.00 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons per month, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons per month, up 0.74 million tons [2]. Option Situation - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 10.26%, down 0.0012; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.43, down 0.0125 [2]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some think there is room for rate cuts, while others are cautious [2]. - The preliminary forecast of the Passenger Car Association shows that the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in November may reach about 2.25 million units, flat compared with October and down 8.7% year - on - year, with new - energy retail sales expected to be about 1.35 million units, and the penetration rate may reach 60% for the first time [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the high - quality development of the integrated circuit industry from three aspects: promoting collaborative innovation in the industrial chain, creating a good industrial environment, and adhering to open cooperation [2]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in November was 51.9, a 4 - month low; the initial values of the service PMI and the composite PMI were 55 and 54.8 respectively, both reaching 4 - month highs [2].