降息预期升温，有色反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - 沪铜: The main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly around 86,200 yuan. The speech of New York Fed President Williams, interpreted as "dovish" by the market, reignited traders' hopes for a possible interest rate cut in December, with the probability of a December rate cut rising to around 70%. Copper prices rebounded significantly on Friday night. Overseas electrolytic copper inventories continued to rise, suppressing copper prices, while domestic social inventories of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 86,000 yuan mark [6]. - 沪铝: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut heated up again, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded from Friday night. As aluminum prices weakened, the spot premium strengthened, reflecting increased industrial support. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 21,400 yuan level [7]. - 沪镍: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly with reduced positions, and the main contract price regained the 115,000 yuan mark. The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut heated up again, and nickel prices stabilized and rebounded from Friday night. The willingness of long - positions to close increased today. As nickel prices declined last week, the spot premium gradually strengthened, reflecting increased support at the spot end. Technically, the short - term nickel price regained the 115,000 yuan mark, and continuous closing of long - positions may drive nickel prices to continue to rebound [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: As of November 24, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China decreased by 13,900 tons week - on - week to 180,600 tons. The main reasons for the inventory reduction this week were the decrease in domestic supply arrivals and the improvement in the outbound rhythm. SMM expected a decrease in imported supply arrivals and stable downstream purchasing willingness, predicting a slight decrease in weekly copper inventory [10]. - Nickel: On November 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 115,400 - 120,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 117,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,050 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,200 - 4,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provided charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warehouse receipt inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - Aluminum: Charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, etc. were presented [23][25][30] - Nickel: Charts on nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. were included [36][38][42]