煤焦日报：偏空氛围主导，焦煤弱势运行-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, the latest data shows that both supply and demand have weakened slightly, and the fundamentals have changed little. As of the week of November 21, the total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.0889 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 thousand tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 thousand tons, and the steel - mill profit rate continued to drop by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66%. The strong supply expectation of coking coal has cooled down, weakening the cost support for coke, and the main futures contract maintains a weak and volatile operation [6][35]. - For coking coal, as of the week of November 21, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 758 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 thousand tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8 thousand tons. The total daily coke output of downstream coking plants and steel mills was 1.0889 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 thousand tons. Although the profit of independent coking plants has improved significantly this week, the port market has overdrawn the price - cut expectation in advance. There are doubts about the improvement of downstream demand and its sustainability. The anti - involution expectation has eased and the accelerated customs clearance of Mongolian coal have weakened the supply - side support for coking coal. However, considering the possible decline in coal - mine output after the year - end production target is met and the Politburo meeting in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking - coal futures remains to be observed [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The US and Ukrainian representatives said that the Geneva talks on November 23 "made progress" on the US - proposed 28 - point new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - On November 24, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main - coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,660 yuan/ton including cash and tax [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - class flat - price) | 1,670 | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - class ex - warehouse) | 1,490 | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 10.78% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,330 | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | Coking Coal (Australian - produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,590 | - 1.24% | - 4.22% | +6.71% | - 6.47% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,790 | - 2.19% | +2.87% | +16.99% | +5.29% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,614.5 | - 1.31 | 1,647.5 | 1,614.5 | 16,023 | - 3,327 | 36,556 | 80 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,103.0 | - 1.82 | 1,124.0 | 1,096.0 | 620,493 | - 94,108 | 497,103 | - 39,806 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to coal and coke inventories, including those of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventories. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [15][16][17][21][24][26][28][30][33] 3.5 Market Outlook - The same as the core viewpoints, the supply and demand of coke have weakened slightly, and the cost support is weakening. The supply - side support for coking coal is weakening, but the sustainability of the downward trend of futures remains to be observed [6][7][35]