PVC周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251124

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. The supply side shows an increase in PVC开工率, while the downstream开工率 continues to decline slightly. The cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC has limited positive impact, and factors such as high inventory, falling prices of coking coal and coke futures, and the end of maintenance of some production enterprises suppress market sentiment [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Market Analysis - PVC prices are oscillating downward, and the 01 basis is at -46 yuan/ton, in a neutral to low level [3][5][13]. b) Supply Side - The upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC开工率 has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83% week-on-week, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years [3][18]. - New production capacities include 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons/year each of Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua operating at low loads after commissioning [3]. c) Demand Side - The downstream PVC开工率 continues to decline slightly, still at a relatively low level, although it exceeds the levels of the past two years [3]. - The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area all showed significant year-on-year declines. As of the week ending November 23, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 18.56% week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [23]. d) Export - India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti-dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and last week's export orders increased week-on-week [3]. e) Inventory - As of the week ending November 20, PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% week-on-week to 1.0326 million tons, 23.47% higher than the same period last year. The inventory is still relatively high [24].