12月FOMC降息预期回升，风险资产迎来修复

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas: The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a four - year high. The October non - farm and CPI data were cancelled due to the government shutdown, and the November data will be released after the December FOMC. Fed officials' statements have made the market extremely sensitive. The divergence within the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of a December rate cut has fluctuated. After a series of hawkish remarks from officials, the probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly, but after "Fed's third - in - command" Williams' dovish statement, the market's bet on a December rate cut rose from about 30% to 70%, driving a slight repair of risk assets. This week, focus on the US's September data [3]. - Domestic: Currently in an economic data and policy vacuum period, the weakening of external risk appetite has disturbed the market. The A - share market fell below the 3900 mark last Friday, with a decline of 2.45%. Micro - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market sectors led the decline. With the increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation and the recovery of overseas risk assets, the A - share market may rebound, but there is still a risk of a phased correction [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - 9 - month non - farm employment and unemployment rate were divergent: The September non - farm data exceeded expectations while the unemployment rate rose. The October employment report was cancelled, and the November data will be released after the December FOMC. The probability of a December rate cut rebounded from 30% to 70% [5]. - Employment in goods and services both recovered: In September, the goods sector added 10,000 jobs, the service sector added 87,000 jobs, and the government sector added 22,000 jobs [6]. - Hourly wage growth declined: The monthly wage growth rate in the goods sector decreased from 0.38% to 0.35%, and in the service sector, it decreased from 0.44% to 0.22% [6]. Asset Performance Equity - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks generally declined last week. The Wande All - A Index fell 5.13%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 5.09%. Different indices had different year - to - date performances, with the ChiNext Index up 36.35% year - to - date [9]. Bond - Domestic bond yields generally showed small fluctuations, while overseas bond yields had different changes. For example, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.00 BP, and the 10 - year German Treasury yield rose 4.00 BP [12]. Commodity - Most commodities declined last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 1.81%, the CRB Commodity Index fell 2.24%, and WTI crude oil fell 3.51% [13]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose 0.87 last week. The US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar against the offshore RMB had different exchange rate changes, and other major currencies against the RMB also showed different trends [15]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: High - frequency data includes the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, real estate transaction area, passenger car sales, and rebar apparent consumption [17][20]. - Overseas: High - frequency data includes Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment benefit claims, US Treasury yield spreads, and FedWatch interest rate change probabilities [26][27]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include the November Dallas Fed business activity index, September US retail sales, PPI, housing price index, and other data from the US, as well as China's October industrial enterprise profit data and the eurozone's November industrial and economic sentiment indices [35].