宏观与大宗商品周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The controversy over the AI bubble has intensified, and the NVIDIA earnings report has affected the global market. Risk - asset prices have fluctuated sharply and declined. The Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation, suppressing investors' risk appetite [5][10]. - The domestic futures market style has switched with price corrections. The anti - involution market has returned, with lithium carbonate being the protagonist, driven by supply and demand, and showing international and domestic linkage [7][119]. - The stock market and commodities have both declined. The difference between commodity and stock returns has converged, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns has hovered around the 0 axis [52]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - AI bubble controversy has increased, and the NVIDIA earnings report has made the market nervous. Risk - asset prices have fallen, global stocks and commodities have declined, A - shares have dropped significantly, the BDI index has risen against the trend, the US dollar index has strengthened, and most non - US currencies have depreciated. Commodities are mostly down, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals falling. The domestic bond market has mixed results, and stock indexes have all tumbled. Most domestic commodity sectors have declined except for the grain sector [5][10]. Big - Class Assets - Global stocks and commodities have declined. Bitcoin and US stocks have fallen rapidly from highs, the VIX volatility index has risen significantly, the BDI index has risen, the US dollar index has strengthened, most non - US currencies have depreciated, and commodities are mostly down [5][10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has mixed results with near - term strength and long - term weakness, stock indexes have all tumbled, and most domestic commodity sectors have declined except for the grain sector. The Wind commodity index has a weekly change of - 4.55%, with 1 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 9 falling [15]. Fund Flows - The commodity futures market has seen a significant overall outflow of funds. The soft commodity, grain, and energy sectors have seen obvious inflows, while the non - ferrous, precious metal, and non - metallic building materials sectors have seen significant outflows [19]. Variety Performance - In the past week, domestic major commodity futures have had mixed results. The top - rising commodity futures are lithium carbonate, iron ore, and styrene, while the top - falling ones are silver futures, low - sulfur fuel oil, and soda ash [23]. Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index has changed little, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua commodity indexes has risen. Most commodity futures sectors have seen an increase in volatility, with the oilseeds and chemical sectors seeing a decline in volatility, and the precious metal, agricultural product, and non - ferrous sectors seeing the most obvious increase in volatility [27]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities have generally declined, the BDI has risen, the CRB has fallen, soybeans have risen while corn has fallen, copper, oil, gold, and silver have all declined, and the gold - silver ratio has rebounded significantly [31]. Macro Logic - Stock indexes have fallen sharply, valuations have declined, and the risk premium ERP has risen. Commodity price indexes have fallen significantly, and inflation expectations have declined under pressure. US Treasury yields have declined, the term structure has flattened in a bullish way, the term spread has changed little, and real interest rates and gold prices have both fallen [35][45][62]. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, the stock market fell sharply, and commodities declined together. The negative difference between commodity and stock returns has converged. The Nanhua and CRB commodity indexes have both declined significantly, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns has hovered around the 0 axis [52]. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed has risen. The probability of a 25 - bp cut to 3.5 - 3.75% is 67.3%, significantly higher than last week's 39.8%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% has significantly decreased [6][81]. NVIDIA Earnings Report - The market has high expectations for NVIDIA's earnings report, with Wall Street generally optimistic, but some institutions are concerned about the AI bubble. The earnings report has exceeded expectations, temporarily alleviating concerns about the AI bubble and boosting the global capital market. However, the stock price has fallen during trading, and the US stock market has reversed sharply [87][91][97]. Fed's Hawkish Stance - The Fed's meeting minutes and the remarks of Fed officials have weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation. The US dollar has strengthened, the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, and the US Treasury yield has fluctuated widely [103]. Market Style Switching - Overseas, the market is worried about the release of major US data, the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the controversy over the AI bubble. Domestically, affected by overseas market volatility, investors have shifted from technology stocks to cyclical stocks, and the anti - involution market has returned, with lithium carbonate being the focus [119]. This Week's Focus - A series of important economic data and events in the US, Germany, the UK, New Zealand, the eurozone, South Korea, and Japan will be released this week, including business activity indexes, GDP data, inflation data, and central bank interest - rate decisions [122].