【冠通期货研究报告】尿素周报：下游高价承接力度不足-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the price rebound, the downstream response was poor, and the orders received since the weekend were weak. Domestic demand still couldn't support the high - price operation. The India tender price also failed to boost the market. However, exports continued, and there was still demand support from subsequent off - season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. It is expected that the futures market will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices moved up due to the continuous rebound of futures and improved downstream demand. But since the weekend, the downstream market has generally resisted high prices, resulting in poor factory orders and the prices are running weakly and stably [3] Futures Dynamics - From November 18 - 22, the urea futures market showed different trends each day. As of November 24, the main January contract of urea was at 1638 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the settlement price on November 17. The weekly trading volume was 1738.90 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 121.16 million tons; the open interest was 724.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.79 million tons. The export speculation sentiment weakened, and the futures market returned to the fundamentals. The weak domestic demand negatively affected the market. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. As of November 24, the basis of the 01 contract was 12 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 74 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 11 yuan/ton. On November 24, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7570, a week - on - week increase of 387 [5][8] Urea Supply - side - From November 13 - 19, the weekly urea output was 142.04 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.35 million tons and a 3.16% increase. The weekly average daily output was 20.29 million tons. Coal - based and small - particle output increased, while gas - based output decreased slightly. In the next cycle, the output is expected to continue to grow. On November 24, the national daily urea output was 20.75 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51%. The price of steam coal was weakly stable, and the supply was expected to change little. The domestic LNG price decreased. The price of synthetic ammonia moved up, and the price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea weakened. The methanol price decreased, and the price difference between methanol and urea also decreased [11][12][14] Urea Demand - side - As of November 21, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased slightly. After the end of the environmental protection inspection last week, the production of compound fertilizer enterprises gradually resumed, and some Northeast devices started operation. It is expected that the production of winter - storage compound fertilizer will continue in the next period. From November 15 - 21, the compound fertilizer operating rate was 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous week and 2.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from the previous period and 6.17 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Although the operating load of melamine increased, the downstream panel market was weak, and the demand support was insufficient [16] Inventory Data - As of November 21, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 143.72 million tons, a decrease of 4.64 million tons from the previous week and a 3.13% decrease. The inventory in Northeast China decreased smoothly. The port sample inventory was 10 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to increase with exports [19] International Market - This week's India tender price was lower than expected. The US cancelled the import tariff on major nitrogen fertilizers. As of November 21, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in China changed, and the FOB prices in other regions also had different fluctuations [21][23]