银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The dovish signal from New York Fed President Williams last Friday increased the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut from less than 40% to over 70%, boosting the stock and precious - metal markets. However, there are significant differences within the Fed, which brings uncertainty to the market. Currently, the high - level US dollar index exerts pressure on gold and silver, but due to the potential for interest - rate cuts, the downside space for precious metals is limited. This week, the release of economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy path, and gold and silver will seek a breakthrough direction in volatility [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: London gold traded around $4060, and London silver around $50. Driven by the overseas market, Shanghai gold closed down 0.52% at 930.32 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed down (the percentage is missing in the text) at 11,808 yuan/kilogram [3]. - US dollar index: It fluctuated slightly at a high level, currently trading around 100.17 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was horizontally consolidated, currently trading around 4.067% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB weakened slightly against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.106 [6]. Important Information - US macro data: The preliminary November 2025 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9 (4 - month low), the Services PMI was 55 (4 - month high), and the Composite PMI was 54.8 (4 - month high). The final November 2025 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 51 (expected 50.5, previous 50.3), and the one - year inflation rate expectation was 4.5% (previous 4.70%) [7]. - Fed views: Williams believes the Fed can cut rates "soon" without harming the inflation target; Collins is cautious about a December rate cut but expects further cuts; Milan would support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive; Logan thinks the Fed should "keep interest rates unchanged for the time being" [7]. - Fed observation: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 69.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 30.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 56.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 20.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.3% [7]. Logical Analysis Williams' dovish remarks raised the market's expectation of a December rate cut, but the internal differences in the Fed still bring uncertainty. The high - level US dollar index pressures gold and silver, but the potential for interest - rate cuts limits their downside. This week's economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy, and gold and silver will seek a direction in volatility [9]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Conservative investors should wait on the sidelines until the market direction is clear. Aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at lows near the 20 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Wait and see [12]. Data Reference The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, to help analyze the precious - metals market [15][17][18][20][23][26][30][38][43][44][47][50][55].