铅周报：铅蓄消费转弱，关注再生铅冶炼成本支撑-20251124

1. Report Title and Researcher - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weakening Lead-Acid Battery Consumption, Focus on the Cost Support of Secondary Lead Smelting [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - With the increase in domestic secondary lead production and resumption, lead ingot supply has recovered. However, lead-acid battery consumption has weakened, and domestic lead ingot inventories have gradually increased. Under the pressure of the fundamentals, lead prices may be under pressure and run weakly. Recently, attention should still be paid to the support of secondary lead costs for lead prices [4] - Trading strategies include: the lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, also temporarily wait and see [4] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - Industry Supply and Demand - Supply Side: This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrates reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for SMM imported lead concentrates reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market was generally stable, and the situation of tight imported ore and almost no quotes continued. In the domestic ore trading market, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places continued to purchase on demand. After the high silver price回调, except for individual mines accepting a small callback in processing fees to make up for the loss of smelter processing profits, most mines and smelters did not mention price adjustments for lead concentrate processing fees. The situation of production start decline in southern smelters in Jiangxi, Hunan, Yunnan and other places due to the shortage of lead concentrate supply had not eased [4] - Smelting End: This week, the average production rate of SMM's three provincial primary lead smelters was 67.7%, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with last week. The marginal fluctuation of the output of primary lead smelters in Henan brought a small increase; the production of smelters in Hunan and Yunnan remained stable, and the smelters that had not been fully produced before had no plans to increase production. A smelter in East China that had previously reduced production due to maintenance resumed production this week, and another smelter carried out scheduled maintenance as planned, with the recovery time to be determined. A smelter in East China whose maintenance plan was originally scheduled for the end of November will enter regular maintenance next week, but the impact on the electrolytic lead production line will be relatively limited, and there may be a slight reduction in production. The weekly start rate of SMM's four provincial secondary lead smelters was 50.52%, an increase of 2.28% compared with last week. The weekly start rate of secondary lead in Anhui changed little, but there was an expectation of a decline next week, mainly because a local smelter needed to temporarily stop production due to the replacement of the hazardous waste business license. The environmental protection control in Henan was lifted, the arrival of raw materials improved, and the disassembly volume of waste lead-acid batteries increased; coupled with the resumption of production of a small and medium-sized smelter after shutdown, the regional start rate increased by 7.11%. The production situation of smelters in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia changed little [4] - Consumption End: This week, the weekly comprehensive start rate of SMM's five provincial lead-acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, basically stable compared with last week. Recently, the terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market had no significant changes, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries had weakened, while that of electric tricycles was okay. In addition, the lead price increased in early November, and leading enterprises notified plans to raise battery prices, prompting dealers to receive goods on demand, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was stable. The automotive battery market was in a state of waiting for the traditional peak season. Previously, due to the increase in lead prices, dealers received goods on demand at the beginning of November, but there were no obvious signs of improvement in the terminal market. Some enterprises had actively reduced production in November. Therefore, before new orders recovered, major enterprises would maintain the production mode based on sales [4] - Inventory Data: As of November 20, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five places reached 37,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons compared with November 13; a decrease of 900 tons compared with November 17 [4] - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range [4] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [4] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [4] 4.1.2 1.2 - 1.5 Other Sub - sections - These sections mainly list the data items to be analyzed, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][14] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - This chapter lists the data items related to raw material supply, including primary raw material supply (global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, etc.) and secondary raw material supply (prices of lead-containing waste, raw material inventories of secondary lead smelters, etc.), but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [19][23][27] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - This chapter lists various data items related to the smelting end, including global and domestic refined lead balance, imports and exports, profits of primary lead smelting enterprises, supply of primary and secondary lead, and total domestic lead ingot supply, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [34][41][42] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - This chapter lists the data items related to demand, including lead-acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, automobiles, motorcycles, power, and communications, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [68][71][76]