金信期货纸业日刊-20251124

Report Overview - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Paper Industry Daily - Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Pulp futures are expected to continue their weak performance due to factors such as price decline, inventory accumulation, increased imports, and cautious downstream procurement [4]. - Double - offset paper futures are likely to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term, and the spot price is unlikely to rise substantially, maintaining a "stable price and weak volume" stalemate due to cost, supply, and demand factors [12]. - Both pulp and double - offset paper are negatively affected by the increase in short - selling positions of major players [18]. Summary by Directory Pulp Futures Fundamental Analysis Basic Situation - In Shandong, the price of softwood pulp decreased by 50 yuan. On Thursday, port inventory increased by 102,000 tons, a 5.1% month - on - month increase. In October, softwood pulp imports continued to rise, with a cumulative annual import of 7.122 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, port de - stocking is lower than expected, and downstream procurement is cautious [4]. Double - offset Paper Futures Fundamental Analysis Basic Situation - In Shandong, the price of double - offset paper remained stable, and the spot market price was temporarily stable with little fluctuation in the quotes of leading paper enterprises. The sharp decline in the upstream pulp futures price has invalidated cost support, and negative sentiment has continued to spread. In Guangdong, some spot prices have weakened, and local publishing tender prices are low, increasing market wait - and - see sentiment. The supply side has an over - capacity situation, with new capacity to be added, while the operating rate has been hovering at a low level and inventory digestion is difficult. On the demand side, although publishing tenders support rigid demand, non - rigid demand orders have shown little improvement, and long - term factors such as digitization and birth rate are dragging down demand growth [12]. Main Force Trends - For pulp, short - selling major players have increased their positions, which is bearish [18]. - For double - offset paper, short - selling major players have increased their positions, which is bearish [18].