Report Title - Black Metal Weekly Report - Steel Products [1] Report Date - November 24, 2025 [3] Report Author - Bai Jing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, the investment - end data is still weak, and domestic demand is underperforming. High - frequency data shows that exports maintain strong resilience, and the advantage of trading at lower prices for higher volumes still exists. The steel industry is in a production - cut stage, but due to the lack of significant losses in ton - steel profits, production reduction is not smooth. The current fundamentals lack driving force, with intense long - short game. The main contract is in the roll - over stage, short - term positive spreads are widening and volatility has increased. Attention should be paid to the integer thresholds and off - peak electricity costs for the unilateral fluctuation range of rebar, and operations should be cautious [7] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Price: Last week, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3190 yuan (+30), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3200 yuan (-60) [6] - Production and Inventory: On November 20, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 15.53 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 12.27 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 31.98 tons. The apparent demand was 894.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.56 tons [6] - Profit: As of November 21, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive cost of rebar was 3212 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about - 22 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil was about - 6 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - rate electricity cost was about 3253 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3122 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar was about - 153 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 22 yuan [6] - Scrap Steel: As of November 20, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 34%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 50.8 tons, a 0.11 - ton decrease. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 23.5 tons/day, a 0.19 - ton increase, and the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 16.8 tons, a 7.1% increase. The average daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 49.5 tons, a 1.5% increase. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 502.9 tons, a 2.1% increase. Overall, the iron - scrap price difference continued to strengthen, short - process steelmaking remained in a loss state, and the overall demand was still weak. Scrap steel prices may fluctuate slightly following steel prices [7] 2. Macroeconomic Data - Steel Production: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a 1.7% decrease from 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a 2.3% decrease. From January to October 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 711 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 818 million tons, a 3.9% decrease [17] - PMI: In October 2025, the PMI was 49%, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing expansion [21] - Investment Data: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year, manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67%, and real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% [25] - Real Estate Data: From January to October, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease; the new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a 19.8% decrease; the completed area was 348.61 million square meters, a 16.9% decrease [28] 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - Spread between Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed this week [37] 4. Supply - Side Data - Long - Process Supply: As of November 21, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.6%, a 0.25% decrease from the previous week; the average daily pig iron output was 236.3 tons, a 0.25% decrease [41] - Short - Process Supply: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric arc furnace plants was 34%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease. As of November 21, the iron - scrap price difference was 66.02 yuan, a 30.39 - yuan increase [44] - Rebar Production: This week, the original sample rebar output was 207.96 tons, an increase of 7.96 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 181.17 tons, an increase of 9.26 tons, and the short - process output was 26.79 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons [56] 5. Demand - Side Data - Building Materials Transactions: Data on building materials transactions in different regions are presented, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [58] - Cement Mill Operating Rate: The average operating load of cement mills this period was 38.55%, a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. Although the market has entered the off - season, there is some rush - construction demand in some provinces, driving up the mill operating rate [67] - Real Estate Sales: High - frequency sales data of 30 major cities in the real estate market are presented, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [68] 6. Inventory Data - Rebar Inventory: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 153.32 tons, a decrease of 7.1 tons; the social inventory was 400.02 tons, a decrease of 15.73 tons; the total inventory was 553.34 tons, a decrease of 22.83 tons [73] - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 316.01 tons, a 2.35 - ton increase. The apparent demand was 324.42 tons, a 10.83 - ton increase. The factory inventory increased by 0.5 tons, the social inventory decreased by 8.91 tons, and the overall inventory decreased by 8.41 tons [76] 7. Export Data - As of November 21, the FOB export price of China was 445 US dollars, a 5 - dollar increase; the export profit was - 19.1 US dollars, a 4.2 - dollar increase. The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 305.3 tons, an 8% decrease [87]
换月叠加基本面博弈正套走扩：黑色金属周报-钢材-20251124
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-24 11:15