资金跟踪系列之二十一：杠杆资金继续净卖出，机构ETF明显回流

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries have both declined, indicating a drop in inflation expectations [1][13][19]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with volatility rising for most major indices. Over half of the sectors still maintain trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][25]. - Excluding the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index, the volatility of other major indices has increased, with the volatility of the electric new energy and electronics sectors remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, while the research activity in oil and petrochemicals, real estate, and non-bank financials has continued to rise [3][43]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased across the board [4][50]. - Specific sectors such as financial real estate, machinery, military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel have also seen upward adjustments in their 2025/2026 net profit forecasts [4][50]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices for 2025/2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the ChiNext index and SSE 50 have been adjusted differently [4][50]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to show significant net selling of A-shares. The ratio of total buy and sell amounts in sectors like electric new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, communications, and home appliances [4][5]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has significantly decreased, reaching the lowest point since late July 2025. The net selling has been concentrated in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals, while media, military industry, and real estate have seen net buying [5][6]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, primarily driven by institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in non-ferrous metals, steel, and financial sectors, while reducing positions in TMT, military, and machinery sectors [6][8].