海外策略周报：美联储分歧加剧，降息预期显著波动-20251124

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have fluctuated significantly, leading to a decline in risk assets and a slight strengthening of the US dollar. The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with major developed market indices also declining, particularly the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng [2][33] - The US labor market showed improvement in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% due to a higher labor participation rate. The government announced that October's non-farm data would not be released, with some data to be combined with November's figures in December [3][4][6] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, causing significant volatility in interest rate cut expectations. The minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated that many officials preferred to maintain rates, leading to a 20 percentage point drop in market expectations for a rate cut to 30%. However, comments from New York Fed President Williams suggested potential adjustments, causing expectations to rise to 71% [7][9] Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026, supported by resilient technology investments and stable consumer spending. AI investments are projected to remain strong, driven by commitments from countries like Japan and South Korea to invest in US AI infrastructure [12][17] - The labor market is anticipated to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with the unemployment rate expected to hover around 4.5% throughout 2026. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to diminish in the second half of the year, contributing to a more favorable economic outlook [17][16] Market Performance - The US stock market is currently in a phase of consolidation following previous high valuations, with limited further downside potential. Sectors with low valuations and solid earnings support, such as healthcare and utilities, are expected to show resilience [2][33] - The S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 28.09, slightly below the past ten-year average plus one standard deviation, indicating a relatively high valuation level. The index's equity-to-bond ratio is at 0.87, above the historical average minus one standard deviation [43][39] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is likely to continue driving growth, with major tech companies expected to maintain high capital expenditure growth rates. This is supported by favorable policies and a stable economic environment [12][28] - The healthcare and consumer sectors are projected to remain resilient amid changing market conditions, with potential for growth driven by stable consumer spending and investment in technology [2][12]