金融工程周报：流动性因子超跌回档-20251124

Report Investment Rating - The report gives an operation rating of ★☆☆ for CITIC's five-style - stable [4] Core View - In the week ending November 21, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -5.12%, -0.02%, and -1.81% respectively. The equity strategy index in the public fund market weakened, short - term pure bonds had strong returns, convertible bond strategies had a pullback, and the returns of non - ferrous and precious metal ETFs and energy and chemical ETFs declined. In the CITIC five - style, all styles fell last Friday, with the cycle and growth styles performing weakly. The style timing signal favors the stable style this week [3][4] Section Summaries Fund Market Review - The equity strategy index in the public fund market weakened collectively in the past week, with the ordinary stock index falling 5.13%. Short - term pure bond returns were strong, convertible bond strategy returns pulled back, non - ferrous and precious metal ETF returns adjusted, and energy and chemical ETF net values continued to decline [4] Equity Market Style - CITIC Five - Style Performance: All five styles closed down last Friday, with the cycle and growth styles having weak returns. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength and relative strength momentum of the five styles declined. In the public fund pool, the average performance of cycle and consumption style funds outperformed the benchmark in the past week. The market's deviation from the financial and growth styles increased. The crowding indicator changed little compared to last week, and the growth and cycle styles were in the lower quantile range in the past year [4] - Neutral Strategy: As of last week, the basis of IH and IF (futures - spot) declined and fell below the range of one standard deviation below the three - month average. In contrast, the basis of IC and IM showed an upward trend. Recently, the average premium rate index of ETFs corresponding to stock indices rebounded, with the premium rate indices of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 ETFs rising more significantly [4] - Barra Factors: In the past week, the leverage and intraday volatility factors had better returns, with a weekly excess return of 1.14%. The returns of medium - and long - term momentum factors continued to weaken. In terms of winning rates, the residual momentum factor increased slightly, and the growth factor decreased. The cross - section rotation speed of factors this week was the same as last week and was in the higher quantile range in the past year [4] - Style Timing Model: According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the cycle style declined this week, and the growth style rebounded slightly. The current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -3.94%, with an excess return of 0.59% compared to the benchmark equal - weighted allocation [4]