贵金属日报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The delayed - released September non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value, but the unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data won't be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials' recent statements have significant differences, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President's statement that there is still room for interest rate adjustment increased the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the US proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, which was opposed by some European allies, and multi - party games will continue. The strong Nvidia earnings last week supported the US stocks, but then the US stocks sharply corrected, and there are still concerns about the bubble. Short - term market news is complex, and precious metals are in high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Russia - Ukraine Conflict - US and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress", and Rubio said Trump was satisfied with the talks report. Zelensky stated that the US peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe put forward a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan, including the US providing NATO Article 5 - style protection, Ukraine not using military means to recover occupied territories, territorial negotiations based on the current military contact line, and allowing Ukraine to join NATO with NATO's consensus. US and Ukrainian officials are discussing Zelensky's visit to the US this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump is pressuring Russia to end the conflict and is confident that the Russia - Ukraine peace process is advancing. Trump thinks November 27 is a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement terms [2] 3.2 Fed - Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term. Collins thinks there is a reason to be cautious about a December rate cut and expects further rate cuts in the future. Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive. Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" when inflation is still high and the labor market is generally balanced [2]