银河期货甲醇日报-20251124

Report Information - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Methanol Daily Report - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The methanol market continues to be weak. International device operating rates are rising, and the domestic supply is abundant. Although downstream demand is stable, the market remains sluggish. The impact of external factors on methanol futures is weakening, and the market is mainly influenced by internal supply - demand relationships [4]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market rebounded significantly with reduced positions, closing at 2077 (+62/+3.08%) [2]. - Spot Market: Prices vary by region. In production areas, prices range from 1910 - 2040 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, from 2040 - 2150 yuan/ton; and in ports, from 2020 - 2040 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - From November 15 - 21, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,068,585 tons, with a device capacity utilization rate of 73.25%, unchanged from the previous week [3]. Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates [4]. - Import: US dollar prices are falling, imports are profitable, and the external market operating rate is rising. Iran has shipped 920,000 tons in November and is actively selling at discounted prices [4]. - Demand: MTO device operating rates are recovering, but there are differences in the operating loads of different enterprises' MTO devices [4]. - Inventory: Port inventory accumulation has ended, and the basis is strong. Inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly [4]. - Overall Situation: The market is weak. Although there are some positive factors in demand, the abundant supply and external market conditions lead to a weak market. The impact of external factors on methanol futures is weakening [4]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Close short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]