华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Iron Ore - Short - term lack of macro - drive, terminal demand of steel shows unexpected rebound, and steel inventory pressure eases, but the increase in rebar production brings pressure to further inventory improvement. - Supply peak of foreign mines has passed, and shipment and arrival volume are expected to decline. Demand side shows short - term fluctuation in hot metal production, but it will decline throughout the year. Inventory will tend to accumulate, and the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore will operate in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline. Coking coal led the decline, and the position of the 01 contract gradually shifted to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - Currently, there is a lack of domestic macro - drive, and terminal demand is sluggish. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve effectively, with strong cost support. The supply of ferrosilicon has shrunk slightly, inventory has decreased significantly, and cost support is fair. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction and high inventory of alloys put pressure on prices, and alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - Futures Prices: The closing prices of the main futures contracts of various varieties on November 21, 2025, compared with November 14, 2025, showed different changes. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar increased by 0.13%, the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.43%, the I2601 contract of iron ore increased by 1.68%, the J2601 contract of coke decreased by 3.29%, the JM2601 contract of coking coal decreased by 7.47%, the SM2601 contract of ferromanganese decreased by 2.47%, and the SF2603 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.23% [8]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various varieties also changed. For example, the HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai increased by 0.94%, the Q235B hot - rolled coil in Shanghai increased by 0.31%, the PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 0.89%, the quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 3.27%, the medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 0.70%, the FeMn65Si17 ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.43%, and the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Iron Ore - Logic: The increase in finished steel apparent demand and continuous inventory reduction, slowdown in the decline of domestic demand, and the boost of market speculation sentiment by "rumors" support the price. Supply: overseas ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the supply peak may have passed. Demand: domestic demand decreased slightly, and blast furnace operating rate and profitability continued to decline. Inventory: steel mill inventory is low, and port inventory ended the 7 - week accumulation [12]. - View: Short - term range - bound. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore operates in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to about 103.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. Strategy: range operation, sell call options, and stop profit for 1 - 5 positive spreads [12]. Coal and Coke - Logic: Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal leading the decline. The futures price was at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price [13]. - View: The coking coal main contract price is approaching the lower limit of the 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton range [13]. Ferroalloys - Logic: Macroeconomic internal divergence in the Fed's meeting minutes, weak domestic terminal demand. Supply: production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises decreased. Demand: the weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased, but overall market sentiment is cautious. Inventory: silicon - manganese inventory increased, and silicon - iron inventory decreased. Cost: cost support for both is fair [14]. - View: Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes and downstream demand [14]. 3.3 Variety Data Iron Ore - Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports): This week, the total inventory was 15054.65 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 264.73 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased, while that of Brazilian ore increased. Port trade ore inventory decreased, and daily port clearance volume increased [18]. - 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 52.50 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, daily consumption decreased slightly, and hot metal daily output decreased [29]. - 247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability: This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 82.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate decreased slightly, and the profitability rate decreased [34]. Coal and Coke - Coke Total Inventory: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 880.6 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 28.32 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises increased, that of 247 steel mills was basically unchanged, and that of 4 ports decreased [46]. - Coking Coal Total Inventory: Last week, the total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2609.5 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.23 million tons. The inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased, that of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and that of 5 ports decreased [55]. - Other Data: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises increased, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the daily coke output decreased slightly. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines increased, and the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased [64][65]. Ferroalloys - Spot Prices: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased week - on - week, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the silicon - iron spot price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [81]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: In the week of November 14, the total port inventory was 426.3 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 198.9 million tons. The inventory in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port both decreased [88]. - Production: The weekly production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron increased [91][94][99]. - Inventory: In the week of November 21, the silicon - manganese inventory increased week - on - week, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased week - on - week. The average available days of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron inventory in November increased month - on - month [103][106]. - Import/Production: In October, the import of manganese ore increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron also increased month - on - month [109]. - Steel Mill Purchase Price: In November, the purchase price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon - manganese remained unchanged month - on - month, and that for silicon - iron increased month - on - month [112].