锌：加工费延续下行，锌价底部仍有支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee continues to decline, squeezing smelting profits. Some high - cost smelters have turned to small losses. Although some smelters are sprinting for the annual task at the end of the year and new production capacity is put into operation, the smelting profit is narrowing and some smelters are actively reducing production due to lack of ore. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in November may be lower than expected. The domestic zinc consumption has entered the off - season. Although there is an expected reduction in supply, there are large differences in the expected export volume. In the short term, Shanghai zinc still has support. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ratio on refined zinc exports. If the export volume is lower than expected, the domestic social inventory may accumulate again [4]. - Trading strategies include going long at low prices on a light - position basis for single - side trading and holding the arbitrage of buying SHFE and selling LME [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Logic - Supply - side: - Mine end: Domestic zinc concentrate is still in short supply this week. The processing fees of domestic zinc concentrates in many places continue to decline, with a reduction range of 150 - 300 yuan/metal ton. The loss of imported zinc concentrates has been repaired, and the trading volume in the imported zinc concentrate market has increased recently, but the processing fee continues to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price is reduced by 250 yuan/metal ton to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index drops by 10.45 US dollars/dry ton to 73.05 US dollars/dry ton. The total inventory of domestic main ports decreases by 3.15 tons to 27.42 tons [4]. - Smelting end: The continuous decline of zinc concentrate TC has further compressed the profits of domestic smelters. Some smelters in Northwest and Central China have actively reduced their operating rates due to losses or lack of ore. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc supply in November may be lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the domestic export volume and frequency [4]. - Demand - side: Domestic zinc consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken [4]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 15.27 tons, a decrease of 0.52 tons compared with November 13 and a decrease of 0.39 tons compared with November 17 [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Go long at low prices on a light - position basis. Be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds on zinc prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Hold the arbitrage of buying SHFE and selling LME [4]. 3.2 Market Data No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some data item names such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, etc. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global and domestic production: From January to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate production is 829.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.37 tons or 7.71%. In July, the global zinc concentrate production is 109.76 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.75 tons or 13.14%. In October, the domestic zinc concentrate production is 33.08 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 12.33%. It is expected that the domestic zinc concentrate production in November will decrease by 2.09% month - on - month to 32.39 tons [28]. - Raw material inventory: As of October, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is 22.1 days, an increase of 5.44 days compared with the same period last year, but it has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in domestic main ports decreases by 3.15 tons to 27.42 tons [28]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the high demand for zinc ore from smelters, but the loss of imported zinc ore in October continued to expand compared with September. Domestic smelters actively snapped up domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones, and the overall spot trading of imported zinc ore was light. It is expected that the imported zinc ore volume in October may have no room for further increase [30]. - From January to September, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate volume is 400.8 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September 2025, the imported zinc concentrate volume is 50.54 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% (3.8 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 24.94% [38]. 3.3.3 Zinc Ore Processing Fee - In November, the monthly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate is 3000 yuan/ton. On November 21, the weekly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate is reduced by 250 yuan to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index drops by 10.45 US dollars/dry ton to 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [46]. - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 5300 yuan/ton, and the production loss of domestic smelters is about 1420 yuan/ton (excluding by - product benefits). With by - product benefits, smelters have a profit of about 500 yuan/ton [47]. 3.3.4 Global and Domestic Refined Zinc Production - Global: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc production is 914.82 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 tons or 0.14%; the global refined zinc consumption is 896.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc accumulatively has a surplus of 17.99 tons. In August, the global refined zinc production is 122.69 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%, and the demand is 117.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, with a surplus of 4.79 tons [51]. - Domestic: In October, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises is 90.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale enterprises is 91.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%; that of medium - scale enterprises is 93.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; and that of small - scale enterprises is 80.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. The SMM China refined zinc production in October increases by 2.85% month - on - month to 61.72 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in November will be 61.14 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 19.93% [54][55]. 3.3.5 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September, the cumulative refined zinc import is 25.82 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September 2025, the refined zinc import is 2.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The refined zinc export in September is 0.25 tons, with a net import of 2.02 tons. The main import countries in September are Kazakhstan, Iran, and Australia. The export mainly goes to Southeast Asian countries, and the export volume increases significantly with the opening of the export spot window [58]. - It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in October will still increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the imported zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may slightly increase month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation [59].