Macro Economic Group - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal disagreement regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with notable dissenting votes from board members [3][4][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 71%, up from less than 40% previously, following comments from key Federal Reserve officials [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - The power density of AI servers is advancing from 30kW to 100kW, leading to a consensus in the industry that the power supply architecture will evolve towards 800V high-voltage direct current [7] - There is a significant expectation gap regarding the pace and technical path of this transition, with 2025 identified as a "verification year" [7] - Traditional manufacturers face challenges from cross-industry competition, as the core technology of SST has shifted from traditional electromagnetic induction to power electronics, creating substantial technical barriers [7] - Investment recommendations focus on structural increments within the supply chain, advising to avoid negatively impacted traditional AC segments and to concentrate on three key benefiting areas: busbars, cabinet-level energy storage, and power modules [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Changxin Memory has launched its latest DDR5 memory series with speeds reaching 8000Mbps, a 25% improvement over the current market mainstream of 6400Mbps [9] - The introduction of 24Gb high-capacity chips surpasses the standard 16Gb capacity, indicating that domestic memory manufacturers are catching up with the latest DDR product technology [9] - The anticipated demand from AI is expected to boost the market for equipment and materials related to semiconductor wafer sales, particularly in memory [9] Consumer Group - Richemont Group's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a 14% year-on-year revenue growth, significantly higher than the 6% growth in Q1 FY26 [11][12] - The jewelry business, particularly brands like Van Cleef & Arpels and Cartier, saw a 17% year-on-year increase, driving the overall revenue growth [11] - The recovery in sales across mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, which collectively grew by 7%, indicates a clear improvement in momentum [11][12] Strategy and Allocation Group - The volatility in overseas markets may be nearing its end, with recent fluctuations in global risk assets, particularly in the stock and commodity markets [14] - Domestic markets are still in a phase of adjustment, with significant declines observed, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals, indicating that short-term market adjustments are not yet over [15]
第一创业晨会纪要-20251124
First Capital Securities·2025-11-24 12:23