银河期货煤炭日报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The coal price is expected to be weak in the short term. As of late November, the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level, the supply is tightening, the power plant inventory is continuously decreasing, the import profit is available, the port inventory fluctuates within a range, the power plant daily consumption hovers at a low level, and the coal consumption is average, but the coastal power plant inventory is lower than the same period and continues to make rigid - demand purchases, leading to a continuous increase in the port FOB price. The increase in pit - mouth price has narrowed [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On November 24, the port market showed a continuous game between buyers and sellers, and the overall quotation remained stable. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other regions, the prices of different - calorie non - power enterprise coal were also within certain ranges. The mainstream quotation of 5500 - kcal thermal coal at Jiangnei Port was 890 - 900 yuan/ton, and the 5000 - kcal coal was quoted at 790 - 800 yuan/ton [2]. Important News - From January to October this year, the national railways cumulatively sent 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, setting a record high for the same period; the average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3]. Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine start - up rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 23, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and that in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply tended to be loose. Entering late November, the coal output in major producing areas was running at a low level, the coal start - up rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, and the daily average output was around 3.8 million tons, with supply tightening [4]. - Import: China's demand has weakened, but the international coal price has still risen. The precipitation in Indonesia still affects the tight supply of goods, the number of overseas cargoes is small, and the miners have a strong willingness to hold up prices [4]. - Demand: This week, the demand performance was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement performance was average, and India's procurement demand still did not improve. With the deepening of winter, the demand for heating coal has increased significantly, but the growth momentum of coal - consumption demand in the industrial industry is insufficient due to the overall economic situation. Power plants are mainly cautious in procurement, mainly locking in part of the coal source through long - term contracts and flexibly adjusting the market coal according to market dynamics [4]. - Inventory: Railway transportation has returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line is 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 30 trains. The port inventory is generally stable. As of November 21, the inventory of Bohai - Rim ports was 24.6 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants is low, but the inventory is continuously decreasing, and the inventory of inland power plants is neutral [4].